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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.43+8.63vs Predicted
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2Virginia Tech1.14+8.74vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+2.57vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.13+2.78vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.20+1.52vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.68+2.18vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy1.97+1.11vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-0.88vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.90-1.17vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54-1.28vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.59+2.17vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.89-3.51vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.57-3.97vs Predicted
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14Washington College0.35-0.39vs Predicted
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15William and Mary0.51-2.10vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College0.42-7.74vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.27-3.16vs Predicted
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18Hampton University0.72-5.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.63Webb Institute1.434.0%1st Place
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10.74Virginia Tech1.143.3%1st Place
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5.57St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5713.1%1st Place
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6.78George Washington University2.139.8%1st Place
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6.52Georgetown University2.209.4%1st Place
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8.18Cornell University1.686.8%1st Place
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8.11U. S. Naval Academy1.976.2%1st Place
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7.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.168.1%1st Place
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7.83University of Pennsylvania1.906.8%1st Place
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8.72U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.545.8%1st Place
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13.17Christopher Newport University0.591.6%1st Place
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8.49Fordham University1.896.6%1st Place
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9.03Old Dominion University1.575.3%1st Place
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13.61Washington College0.351.7%1st Place
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12.9William and Mary0.511.9%1st Place
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8.26SUNY Maritime College0.426.5%1st Place
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13.84Princeton University0.271.5%1st Place
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12.5Hampton University0.721.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payne Donaldson | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 2.6% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 4.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 13.1% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Feves | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Diego Escobar | 9.4% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Gray Benson | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Will Murray | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Javier Garcon | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Lucas Sawin | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 15.2% | 16.7% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| Camden Ward | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 14.9% | 21.6% |
| Nathan Whisner | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 14.8% |
| Nick Chisari | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 17.5% | 22.2% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 11.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.