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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.90+6.54vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+3.67vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.20+3.54vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+5.00vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.68+3.17vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University0.59+7.14vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.43+2.58vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.13-1.12vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy1.97-1.05vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech1.14+0.74vs Predicted
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11Washington College0.35+2.81vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-4.86vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.57-3.96vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.42-5.85vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.89-6.46vs Predicted
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16William and Mary0.51-3.10vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.27-3.15vs Predicted
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18Hampton University0.72-5.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.54University of Pennsylvania1.907.8%1st Place
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5.67St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5713.1%1st Place
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6.54Georgetown University2.2010.1%1st Place
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9.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.545.8%1st Place
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8.17Cornell University1.686.5%1st Place
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13.14Christopher Newport University0.591.8%1st Place
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9.58Webb Institute1.434.6%1st Place
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6.88George Washington University2.138.8%1st Place
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7.95U. S. Naval Academy1.977.5%1st Place
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10.74Virginia Tech1.142.9%1st Place
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13.81Washington College0.351.4%1st Place
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7.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.167.8%1st Place
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9.04Old Dominion University1.575.3%1st Place
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8.15SUNY Maritime College0.425.4%1st Place
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8.54Fordham University1.896.1%1st Place
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12.9William and Mary0.511.9%1st Place
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13.85Princeton University0.271.6%1st Place
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12.37Hampton University0.721.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Garcon | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Owen Hennessey | 13.1% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Diego Escobar | 10.1% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Sawin | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 14.4% | 17.2% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 2.3% |
| Cameron Feves | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Gray Benson | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 3.7% |
| Camden Ward | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 15.2% | 23.8% |
| Will Murray | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Nick Chisari | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Nathan Whisner | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 13.6% | 14.6% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 16.7% | 21.3% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 11.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.