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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.13+5.80vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.43+7.47vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy1.97+5.06vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+3.21vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.88+2.96vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-0.25vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.57+2.21vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.90-0.26vs Predicted
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9William and Mary0.51+3.85vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54-0.98vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.68-2.76vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech1.14-1.33vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.89-4.35vs Predicted
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14Washington College0.35-0.25vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University2.20-8.46vs Predicted
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16Hampton University0.72-3.60vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University0.59-3.93vs Predicted
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18Princeton University0.27-4.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.8George Washington University2.139.3%1st Place
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9.47Webb Institute1.434.8%1st Place
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8.06U. S. Naval Academy1.977.3%1st Place
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7.21Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.168.9%1st Place
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7.96SUNY Maritime College1.886.2%1st Place
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5.75St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5712.9%1st Place
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9.21Old Dominion University1.575.5%1st Place
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7.74University of Pennsylvania1.906.5%1st Place
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12.85William and Mary0.512.1%1st Place
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9.02U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.545.1%1st Place
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8.24Cornell University1.686.5%1st Place
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10.67Virginia Tech1.142.9%1st Place
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8.65Fordham University1.894.9%1st Place
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13.75Washington College0.351.5%1st Place
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6.54Georgetown University2.2010.3%1st Place
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12.4Hampton University0.722.0%1st Place
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13.07Christopher Newport University0.591.6%1st Place
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13.61Princeton University0.271.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Feves | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 1.7% |
| Gray Benson | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Will Murray | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.9% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 1.4% |
| Javier Garcon | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Nathan Whisner | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 12.8% | 15.0% |
| Lucas Sawin | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| J.J. Smith | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 4.9% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Camden Ward | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 15.4% | 21.6% |
| Diego Escobar | 10.3% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 11.7% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 15.9% | 16.5% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 11.6% | 15.0% | 22.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.