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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.13+6.02vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+6.99vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+3.95vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.68+4.20vs Predicted
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5Virginia Tech1.14+5.79vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.57+3.08vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.43+2.58vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-2.38vs Predicted
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9William and Mary0.51+3.92vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.20-3.30vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College1.88-3.00vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy1.97-4.03vs Predicted
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13Washington College0.35+0.74vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.59-0.81vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.89-6.50vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.27-2.33vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania1.90-9.23vs Predicted
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18Hampton University0.72-5.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.02George Washington University2.138.6%1st Place
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8.99U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.545.9%1st Place
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6.95Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.169.4%1st Place
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8.2Cornell University1.686.5%1st Place
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10.79Virginia Tech1.143.1%1st Place
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9.08Old Dominion University1.575.0%1st Place
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9.58Webb Institute1.434.2%1st Place
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5.62St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5713.2%1st Place
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12.92William and Mary0.511.9%1st Place
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6.7Georgetown University2.209.8%1st Place
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8.0SUNY Maritime College1.886.0%1st Place
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7.97U. S. Naval Academy1.977.9%1st Place
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13.74Washington College0.351.2%1st Place
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13.19Christopher Newport University0.591.9%1st Place
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8.5Fordham University1.895.3%1st Place
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13.67Princeton University0.271.9%1st Place
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7.77University of Pennsylvania1.906.5%1st Place
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12.32Hampton University0.721.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cameron Feves | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Lucas Sawin | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
Will Murray | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
J.J. Smith | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
Reid Shanabrook | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 4.0% |
Parker Purrington | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
Payne Donaldson | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.0% |
Owen Hennessey | 13.2% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Nathan Whisner | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 13.7% | 13.9% |
Diego Escobar | 9.8% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Spencer Barnes | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
Gray Benson | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
Camden Ward | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 12.2% | 15.6% | 22.4% |
Luke Hayes | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 15.2% | 17.5% |
Kenneth Corsig | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
Jasper Waldman | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 11.8% | 16.0% | 23.1% |
Javier Garcon | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
Stefano Palamara | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 11.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.