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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.98+7.24vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.57+7.10vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.20+3.39vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+5.05vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.13+1.79vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+1.15vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.59+6.08vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.88+0.02vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.43+0.68vs Predicted
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10William and Mary0.51+2.77vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.68-2.65vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech1.14-1.19vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy1.97-5.09vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-8.29vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania1.90-7.17vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.27-2.09vs Predicted
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17Hampton University0.72-4.58vs Predicted
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18Washington College0.35-4.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.24Fordham University1.986.0%1st Place
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9.1Old Dominion University1.574.6%1st Place
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6.39Georgetown University2.2010.1%1st Place
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9.05U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.544.7%1st Place
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6.79George Washington University2.139.9%1st Place
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7.15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.169.0%1st Place
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13.08Christopher Newport University0.591.8%1st Place
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8.02SUNY Maritime College1.886.0%1st Place
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9.68Webb Institute1.434.2%1st Place
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12.77William and Mary0.512.4%1st Place
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8.35Cornell University1.686.7%1st Place
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10.81Virginia Tech1.143.4%1st Place
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7.91U. S. Naval Academy1.977.0%1st Place
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5.71St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.8%1st Place
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7.83University of Pennsylvania1.907.4%1st Place
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13.91Princeton University0.271.3%1st Place
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12.42Hampton University0.722.3%1st Place
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13.79Washington College0.351.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porter Kavle | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| Diego Escobar | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Sawin | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Cameron Feves | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Will Murray | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 14.8% | 17.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| Nathan Whisner | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 14.0% | 14.3% |
| J.J. Smith | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 3.8% |
| Gray Benson | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.8% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Javier Garcon | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 16.5% | 24.2% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 12.5% | 11.9% | 10.8% |
| Camden Ward | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 16.1% | 21.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.