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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+8.10vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.90+5.79vs Predicted
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3George Washington University2.13+3.95vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.43+5.54vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.20+1.80vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.98+2.15vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.57+2.09vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.68+0.43vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-3.43vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University0.59+3.25vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College1.88-3.14vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy1.97-3.89vs Predicted
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13William and Mary0.51-0.26vs Predicted
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14Hampton University0.72-1.83vs Predicted
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15Washington College0.35-1.26vs Predicted
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16Virginia Tech1.14-5.17vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.27-3.11vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-11.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.544.7%1st Place
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7.79University of Pennsylvania1.907.0%1st Place
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6.95George Washington University2.139.1%1st Place
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9.54Webb Institute1.434.0%1st Place
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6.8Georgetown University2.209.7%1st Place
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8.15Fordham University1.987.0%1st Place
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9.09Old Dominion University1.575.0%1st Place
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8.43Cornell University1.686.7%1st Place
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5.57St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5712.8%1st Place
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13.25Christopher Newport University0.592.1%1st Place
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7.86SUNY Maritime College1.887.0%1st Place
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8.11U. S. Naval Academy1.976.1%1st Place
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12.74William and Mary0.512.4%1st Place
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12.17Hampton University0.721.8%1st Place
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13.74Washington College0.351.3%1st Place
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10.83Virginia Tech1.143.8%1st Place
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13.89Princeton University0.271.1%1st Place
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6.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.168.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Sawin | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| Javier Garcon | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Cameron Feves | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% |
| Diego Escobar | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Porter Kavle | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| J.J. Smith | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.8% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Luke Hayes | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 14.2% | 17.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Gray Benson | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Whisner | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 13.5% | 14.8% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 10.3% |
| Camden Ward | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 16.6% | 21.8% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 4.3% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 12.2% | 16.0% | 23.3% |
| Will Murray | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.