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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+7.77vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+3.63vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.57+6.06vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.13+2.84vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.20+1.60vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.68+2.17vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+0.12vs Predicted
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8Hampton University0.72+4.28vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College0.42-1.01vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech1.14+0.79vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.43-1.40vs Predicted
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12Washington College0.35+1.18vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.98-5.03vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy1.97-5.97vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.59-2.03vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.27-2.70vs Predicted
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17William and Mary-1.70+0.13vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania2.42-12.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.77U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.545.2%1st Place
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5.63St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5713.4%1st Place
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9.06Old Dominion University1.574.7%1st Place
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6.84George Washington University2.138.3%1st Place
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6.6Georgetown University2.209.5%1st Place
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8.17Cornell University1.686.0%1st Place
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7.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.168.2%1st Place
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12.28Hampton University0.722.2%1st Place
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7.99SUNY Maritime College0.426.2%1st Place
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10.79Virginia Tech1.142.9%1st Place
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9.6Webb Institute1.433.7%1st Place
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13.18Washington College0.351.8%1st Place
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7.97Fordham University1.986.5%1st Place
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8.03U. S. Naval Academy1.975.8%1st Place
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12.97Christopher Newport University0.591.2%1st Place
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13.3Princeton University0.271.8%1st Place
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17.13William and Mary-1.700.3%1st Place
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5.57University of Pennsylvania2.4212.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lucas Sawin | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
Owen Hennessey | 13.4% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Parker Purrington | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
Cameron Feves | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Diego Escobar | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
J.J. Smith | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
Will Murray | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
Stefano Palamara | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 3.6% |
Nick Chisari | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
Reid Shanabrook | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 6.2% | 0.6% |
Payne Donaldson | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
Camden Ward | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 15.0% | 21.5% | 5.6% |
Porter Kavle | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
Gray Benson | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
Luke Hayes | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 16.4% | 18.4% | 4.7% |
Jasper Waldman | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 15.4% | 22.1% | 5.8% |
Daniel Shpigel | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 7.8% | 78.4% |
Jordan Bruce | 12.6% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.