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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College0.42+6.87vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+5.08vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+2.58vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+4.98vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.20+1.61vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.98+2.02vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.68+1.24vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.13-0.91vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.43+0.55vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy1.97-1.87vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.42-5.61vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.57-3.21vs Predicted
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13Virginia Tech1.14-2.45vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.59-1.08vs Predicted
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15Washington College0.35-1.56vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.27-2.51vs Predicted
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17Hampton University0.72-4.96vs Predicted
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18William and Mary-1.70-0.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.87SUNY Maritime College0.427.0%1st Place
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7.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.168.8%1st Place
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5.58St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5712.2%1st Place
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8.98U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.544.5%1st Place
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6.61Georgetown University2.209.5%1st Place
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8.02Fordham University1.986.3%1st Place
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8.24Cornell University1.685.3%1st Place
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7.09George Washington University2.137.1%1st Place
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9.55Webb Institute1.434.2%1st Place
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8.13U. S. Naval Academy1.976.2%1st Place
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5.39University of Pennsylvania2.4213.6%1st Place
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8.79Old Dominion University1.575.9%1st Place
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10.55Virginia Tech1.143.4%1st Place
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12.92Christopher Newport University0.590.9%1st Place
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13.44Washington College0.351.4%1st Place
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13.49Princeton University0.271.8%1st Place
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12.04Hampton University0.721.7%1st Place
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17.24William and Mary-1.700.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chisari | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Will Murray | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.2% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Sawin | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Diego Escobar | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Porter Kavle | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Feves | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 0.1% |
| Gray Benson | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 13.6% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.9% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 0.9% |
| Luke Hayes | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 15.0% | 17.5% | 4.2% |
| Camden Ward | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 16.6% | 22.0% | 5.6% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 16.1% | 23.9% | 5.3% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 2.3% |
| Daniel Shpigel | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 7.1% | 80.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.