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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.13+5.91vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College0.42+6.06vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.68+5.29vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.42+1.64vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+0.77vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+1.09vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.57+2.07vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+0.95vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.98-0.99vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.43-0.49vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.25-4.67vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.20-5.30vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.59-0.22vs Predicted
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14Virginia Tech1.14-3.42vs Predicted
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15Hampton University0.72-3.06vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.35-2.62vs Predicted
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17Princeton University-0.32-2.20vs Predicted
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18William and Mary-1.70-0.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.91George Washington University2.138.3%1st Place
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8.06SUNY Maritime College0.426.6%1st Place
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8.29Cornell University1.685.7%1st Place
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5.64University of Pennsylvania2.4211.8%1st Place
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5.77St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.3%1st Place
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7.09Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.168.2%1st Place
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9.07Old Dominion University1.574.5%1st Place
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8.95U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.544.8%1st Place
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8.01Fordham University1.986.6%1st Place
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9.51Webb Institute1.434.5%1st Place
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6.33U. S. Naval Academy2.259.7%1st Place
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6.7Georgetown University2.209.3%1st Place
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12.78Christopher Newport University0.591.7%1st Place
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10.58Virginia Tech1.143.0%1st Place
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11.94Hampton University0.721.8%1st Place
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13.38Washington College0.351.5%1st Place
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14.8Princeton University-0.320.8%1st Place
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17.18William and Mary-1.700.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Feves | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nick Chisari | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 11.8% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.3% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Sawin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Porter Kavle | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Gavin McJones | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Diego Escobar | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 16.7% | 14.4% | 3.4% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 3.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 0.6% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 15.0% | 9.5% | 2.2% |
| Camden Ward | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 18.2% | 19.1% | 4.5% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 16.0% | 32.2% | 13.9% |
| Daniel Shpigel | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 11.2% | 74.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.