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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.13+5.87vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.43+7.36vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College0.42+5.00vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.42+1.75vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.68+3.28vs Predicted
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6Hampton University0.72+6.09vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-1.38vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-0.81vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+0.09vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.57-0.85vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.20-4.27vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.98-3.97vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy2.25-6.87vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.59-1.06vs Predicted
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15Washington College0.35-1.76vs Predicted
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16Virginia Tech1.14-5.36vs Predicted
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17Princeton University-0.32-2.29vs Predicted
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18William and Mary-1.70-0.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.87George Washington University2.138.2%1st Place
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9.36Webb Institute1.434.2%1st Place
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8.0SUNY Maritime College0.425.9%1st Place
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5.75University of Pennsylvania2.4212.3%1st Place
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8.28Cornell University1.685.7%1st Place
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12.09Hampton University0.722.2%1st Place
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5.62St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.1%1st Place
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7.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.167.3%1st Place
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9.09U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.544.2%1st Place
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9.15Old Dominion University1.575.9%1st Place
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6.73Georgetown University2.208.9%1st Place
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8.03Fordham University1.986.2%1st Place
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6.13U. S. Naval Academy2.2510.6%1st Place
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12.94Christopher Newport University0.591.8%1st Place
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13.24Washington College0.351.2%1st Place
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10.64Virginia Tech1.143.2%1st Place
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14.71Princeton University-0.320.9%1st Place
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17.19William and Mary-1.700.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Feves | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Nick Chisari | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 12.3% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.1% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Sawin | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Diego Escobar | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Porter Kavle | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Gavin McJones | 10.6% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 14.1% | 17.2% | 14.3% | 4.0% |
| Camden Ward | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 11.7% | 18.9% | 18.1% | 5.3% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 4.3% | 0.9% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 14.9% | 32.4% | 13.4% |
| Daniel Shpigel | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 5.5% | 12.3% | 73.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.