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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College0.42+7.01vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+3.54vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.40+2.95vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+3.11vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.43+4.29vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy1.97+1.92vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.59+5.85vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.13-1.11vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech1.14+1.55vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.98-2.00vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.42-5.36vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54-3.19vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.68-4.89vs Predicted
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14Hampton University0.72-1.93vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.27-1.76vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University1.57-7.00vs Predicted
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17Washington College-0.31-2.07vs Predicted
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18William and Mary-1.70-0.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.01SUNY Maritime College0.425.9%1st Place
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5.54St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5712.9%1st Place
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5.95Georgetown University2.4011.6%1st Place
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7.11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.168.2%1st Place
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9.29Webb Institute1.434.8%1st Place
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7.92U. S. Naval Academy1.976.3%1st Place
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12.85Christopher Newport University0.591.6%1st Place
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6.89George Washington University2.137.3%1st Place
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10.55Virginia Tech1.143.1%1st Place
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8.0Fordham University1.986.6%1st Place
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5.64University of Pennsylvania2.4212.0%1st Place
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8.81U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.544.9%1st Place
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8.11Cornell University1.685.9%1st Place
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12.07Hampton University0.722.2%1st Place
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13.24Princeton University0.271.4%1st Place
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9.0Old Dominion University1.574.4%1st Place
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14.93Washington College-0.310.6%1st Place
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17.07William and Mary-1.700.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chisari | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.9% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 11.6% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Gray Benson | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 16.6% | 14.8% | 3.2% |
| Cameron Feves | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 0.4% |
| Porter Kavle | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 12.0% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Sawin | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| J.J. Smith | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 11.1% | 13.1% | 14.2% | 10.1% | 2.4% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 17.8% | 17.1% | 4.7% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Max Shapiro | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 9.4% | 14.8% | 32.6% | 16.1% |
| Daniel Shpigel | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 12.2% | 71.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.