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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.13+5.84vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.42+3.49vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+5.96vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+3.20vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.40+1.09vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-0.36vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.98+0.96vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy1.97+0.09vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.43+0.41vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College0.42-1.96vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech1.14-0.68vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.57-2.99vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.68-4.86vs Predicted
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14Washington College-0.31+0.90vs Predicted
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15Hampton University0.72-3.27vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University0.59-3.26vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.27-3.81vs Predicted
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18William and Mary-1.70-0.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.84George Washington University2.138.8%1st Place
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5.49University of Pennsylvania2.4212.4%1st Place
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8.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.545.9%1st Place
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7.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.166.9%1st Place
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6.09Georgetown University2.4010.7%1st Place
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5.64St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5712.3%1st Place
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7.96Fordham University1.986.7%1st Place
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8.09U. S. Naval Academy1.975.4%1st Place
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9.41Webb Institute1.434.6%1st Place
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8.04SUNY Maritime College0.425.9%1st Place
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10.32Virginia Tech1.143.5%1st Place
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9.01Old Dominion University1.574.8%1st Place
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8.14Cornell University1.686.1%1st Place
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14.9Washington College-0.310.9%1st Place
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11.73Hampton University0.722.5%1st Place
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12.74Christopher Newport University0.591.2%1st Place
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13.19Princeton University0.271.5%1st Place
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17.23William and Mary-1.700.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Feves | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 12.4% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Sawin | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 6.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 10.7% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.3% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Porter Kavle | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Gray Benson | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| Nick Chisari | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 0.8% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| J.J. Smith | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Max Shapiro | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 34.9% | 15.5% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 13.2% | 9.2% | 1.5% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 13.7% | 17.1% | 13.7% | 2.9% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 13.1% | 17.7% | 18.2% | 3.7% |
| Daniel Shpigel | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 4.8% | 11.7% | 75.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.