Race 2A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Marissa Tegeder 4.7% 4.7% 5.1% 5.3% 5.3% 7.8% 8.6% 8.9% 9.6% 12.6% 15.0% 12.6%
Jenna Probst 12.6% 12.4% 11.6% 11.5% 10.4% 10.1% 9.2% 6.9% 6.2% 5.0% 3.0% 1.1%
Tarkan Bolat 17.5% 14.1% 14.2% 12.3% 10.7% 8.8% 7.5% 5.6% 4.2% 2.9% 1.7% 0.2%
Rachel Bartel 9.8% 10.2% 9.4% 10.0% 11.2% 11.2% 8.4% 9.1% 7.2% 5.9% 5.5% 2.1%
Will Davies 6.4% 6.8% 7.1% 7.0% 7.0% 8.3% 8.4% 9.0% 11.2% 10.0% 11.8% 6.9%
Liam Walz 11.5% 12.1% 10.0% 11.4% 10.1% 8.6% 9.5% 9.6% 6.8% 6.2% 3.4% 1.1%
William Carroll 10.1% 11.1% 9.7% 9.8% 9.6% 9.3% 9.7% 9.4% 7.5% 7.6% 4.9% 1.4%
Joseph Gallagher 8.6% 8.2% 10.2% 9.2% 10.1% 8.9% 9.6% 9.2% 10.8% 7.4% 5.5% 2.2%
Donny Marwin 3.0% 4.7% 3.8% 5.1% 5.7% 6.2% 6.5% 7.9% 9.0% 12.2% 16.4% 19.6%
Odey Hariri 8.5% 7.8% 8.8% 7.9% 9.3% 8.6% 8.9% 9.7% 9.8% 10.0% 7.1% 3.5%
Ella Reinemann 5.9% 5.9% 8.1% 7.7% 7.6% 7.8% 9.3% 9.8% 10.8% 10.5% 10.6% 6.0%
Lucia Marquez 1.5% 2.1% 2.2% 2.9% 3.0% 4.2% 4.4% 5.0% 6.7% 9.8% 15.0% 43.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.