Race 3A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

25.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Jenna Probst 11.4% 13.3% 10.8% 10.8% 10.5% 10.3% 8.8% 8.0% 7.0% 4.7% 3.1% 1.4%
Marissa Tegeder 4.7% 5.3% 5.8% 5.5% 6.0% 7.0% 7.8% 8.6% 10.0% 11.8% 15.2% 12.3%
Odey Hariri 8.0% 8.9% 8.6% 8.5% 9.0% 8.0% 9.7% 10.8% 8.8% 8.9% 7.3% 3.5%
Will Davies 6.0% 6.5% 7.3% 7.4% 8.7% 8.2% 8.3% 10.0% 9.2% 10.7% 10.7% 7.0%
Joseph Gallagher 9.2% 7.8% 8.3% 10.3% 9.8% 9.4% 8.9% 9.8% 9.3% 7.8% 5.8% 3.5%
William Carroll 10.1% 10.5% 10.3% 10.8% 10.1% 8.6% 10.5% 8.0% 7.8% 7.2% 4.3% 1.8%
Tarkan Bolat 16.0% 14.5% 14.6% 11.8% 10.9% 10.2% 7.5% 6.3% 3.7% 2.4% 1.6% 0.5%
Ella Reinemann 7.3% 6.9% 7.1% 6.6% 8.0% 7.7% 8.6% 8.8% 11.2% 11.1% 10.1% 6.5%
Liam Walz 11.8% 10.8% 10.9% 10.5% 9.0% 10.5% 9.7% 8.1% 7.8% 5.6% 3.9% 1.6%
Rachel Bartel 9.0% 9.2% 9.9% 9.8% 9.7% 9.8% 9.3% 7.6% 9.2% 7.8% 6.0% 2.7%
Donny Marwin 4.1% 4.5% 4.3% 5.1% 5.0% 6.8% 6.9% 8.0% 9.3% 12.4% 16.7% 17.0%
Lucia Marquez 2.5% 1.8% 2.1% 2.9% 3.4% 3.4% 4.0% 6.0% 6.7% 9.8% 15.4% 42.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.