Race 5A

mcsa-fall

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Jenna Probst 12.4% 11.9% 11.3% 10.1% 9.8% 10.8% 9.6% 7.2% 7.0% 5.9% 2.9% 1.2%
Will Davies 7.0% 6.5% 6.2% 7.7% 7.8% 8.6% 8.8% 8.3% 10.9% 11.1% 10.4% 6.5%
Ella Reinemann 6.0% 5.9% 7.4% 7.3% 7.6% 8.4% 10.0% 10.4% 9.6% 11.1% 9.4% 6.7%
Tarkan Bolat 16.4% 14.3% 13.5% 11.3% 11.8% 9.8% 7.9% 5.9% 4.9% 2.6% 1.3% 0.4%
William Carroll 11.0% 10.5% 10.3% 9.8% 10.4% 9.5% 8.6% 8.6% 7.8% 6.6% 4.9% 2.0%
Marissa Tegeder 5.1% 5.1% 5.2% 6.2% 6.8% 6.4% 7.7% 9.0% 10.1% 11.4% 14.9% 12.2%
Odey Hariri 8.6% 9.0% 8.1% 8.5% 8.9% 9.6% 9.2% 9.3% 9.1% 8.1% 7.0% 4.4%
Joseph Gallagher 8.0% 8.9% 9.6% 11.3% 9.2% 8.8% 8.5% 8.9% 8.8% 7.6% 7.5% 2.9%
Liam Walz 11.6% 11.4% 11.8% 11.5% 9.1% 9.0% 8.3% 9.5% 7.0% 5.4% 3.5% 2.0%
Donny Marwin 3.2% 4.4% 4.3% 5.1% 4.5% 6.4% 7.0% 8.2% 9.8% 13.1% 16.2% 17.7%
Rachel Bartel 8.9% 9.6% 9.7% 7.6% 10.8% 9.0% 9.8% 9.2% 8.3% 7.1% 6.9% 2.9%
Lucia Marquez 1.8% 2.4% 2.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.6% 4.6% 5.4% 6.7% 10.1% 14.9% 41.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.