Race 6A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Tarkan Bolat 16.0% 16.0% 15.0% 12.5% 11.0% 9.2% 6.8% 4.7% 4.0% 3.1% 1.2% 0.5%
Marissa Tegeder 5.1% 5.0% 5.4% 6.8% 5.8% 7.1% 6.8% 9.5% 9.0% 12.2% 14.4% 12.8%
William Carroll 10.2% 9.8% 11.2% 10.0% 8.9% 9.0% 10.4% 9.4% 8.7% 6.0% 4.3% 1.9%
Jenna Probst 11.9% 11.5% 10.6% 10.9% 10.7% 10.3% 9.6% 8.5% 7.0% 4.5% 3.6% 1.1%
Joseph Gallagher 10.0% 8.9% 9.2% 9.1% 9.2% 9.4% 9.3% 7.8% 9.8% 8.5% 5.8% 3.1%
Ella Reinemann 5.5% 6.2% 6.8% 8.3% 7.6% 8.1% 9.5% 9.0% 9.7% 11.1% 10.9% 7.3%
Rachel Bartel 8.6% 10.3% 8.2% 9.7% 9.3% 9.0% 9.9% 10.1% 8.6% 7.4% 5.8% 2.9%
Will Davies 5.3% 6.7% 8.1% 7.3% 7.8% 8.6% 8.2% 9.8% 10.0% 10.5% 10.9% 6.9%
Odey Hariri 8.6% 7.6% 8.2% 8.8% 9.8% 9.4% 9.8% 9.4% 9.2% 8.5% 6.8% 3.9%
Liam Walz 12.2% 11.7% 10.5% 10.1% 12.0% 9.6% 9.2% 8.1% 6.5% 5.1% 3.7% 1.4%
Donny Marwin 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6.5% 6.1% 8.6% 10.7% 12.1% 16.6% 18.1%
Lucia Marquez 2.5% 2.3% 2.9% 2.0% 2.9% 3.7% 4.5% 5.2% 6.9% 11.1% 16.0% 40.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.