Race 10A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Tarkan Bolat 15.6% 14.6% 13.1% 11.7% 11.5% 10.6% 8.2% 6.6% 4.6% 2.2% 1.2% 0.2%
Marissa Tegeder 4.5% 5.7% 5.8% 5.5% 6.5% 7.4% 8.2% 8.9% 9.4% 11.3% 15.0% 11.7%
Joseph Gallagher 8.9% 8.9% 10.1% 10.2% 9.6% 8.5% 9.2% 9.2% 9.4% 7.4% 5.5% 3.0%
Jenna Probst 12.9% 12.3% 12.6% 9.6% 10.8% 9.7% 9.0% 7.2% 6.8% 5.2% 2.9% 1.1%
Donny Marwin 3.5% 3.5% 3.9% 5.3% 5.5% 5.5% 6.5% 8.3% 10.0% 12.6% 17.1% 18.2%
Liam Walz 12.3% 11.3% 10.6% 10.5% 9.7% 10.1% 9.5% 8.4% 6.3% 6.6% 3.5% 1.3%
Will Davies 6.5% 6.9% 7.1% 6.2% 7.4% 8.5% 7.7% 9.8% 9.8% 11.7% 11.6% 7.0%
Odey Hariri 8.6% 8.4% 9.6% 8.9% 8.5% 9.0% 9.8% 8.7% 10.0% 8.5% 6.2% 3.8%
William Carroll 9.8% 10.4% 9.0% 10.7% 10.5% 9.0% 9.4% 8.6% 8.8% 7.0% 4.7% 2.0%
Lucia Marquez 2.1% 1.6% 2.0% 3.3% 3.1% 4.2% 4.1% 5.6% 5.9% 9.6% 15.8% 42.6%
Rachel Bartel 9.7% 9.8% 9.1% 10.2% 9.9% 9.4% 9.9% 9.0% 8.7% 6.2% 5.9% 2.2%
Ella Reinemann 5.7% 6.3% 7.1% 8.0% 7.1% 8.1% 8.5% 9.6% 10.2% 11.8% 10.7% 7.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.