Race 11A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Jenna Probst 11.8% 11.9% 11.3% 10.1% 11.5% 10.1% 9.7% 8.6% 6.8% 4.2% 3.0% 0.9%
Marissa Tegeder 5.0% 5.1% 5.9% 5.3% 5.9% 7.8% 6.7% 8.8% 11.5% 12.2% 14.2% 11.7%
Tarkan Bolat 16.5% 14.0% 13.2% 12.6% 10.2% 10.2% 7.9% 6.3% 4.1% 2.9% 1.5% 0.6%
William Carroll 11.7% 11.1% 9.2% 10.4% 10.5% 8.8% 8.8% 8.6% 7.4% 7.1% 4.3% 2.1%
Ella Reinemann 6.4% 6.8% 7.3% 7.4% 7.3% 8.3% 8.4% 8.8% 9.4% 11.8% 10.8% 7.1%
Rachel Bartel 9.7% 9.2% 8.8% 9.2% 8.8% 8.6% 10.7% 10.1% 9.0% 7.3% 5.9% 2.8%
Donny Marwin 4.2% 4.5% 4.8% 6.2% 5.1% 5.5% 5.8% 7.3% 10.5% 11.3% 16.0% 18.8%
Liam Walz 12.5% 11.4% 10.2% 10.6% 10.4% 9.3% 9.8% 8.1% 6.9% 5.9% 3.8% 1.1%
Odey Hariri 6.9% 8.6% 9.5% 8.6% 9.9% 8.7% 9.7% 10.4% 8.5% 8.8% 7.2% 3.4%
Will Davies 5.3% 6.6% 7.1% 7.0% 7.6% 9.0% 8.6% 9.3% 11.1% 10.7% 10.7% 7.0%
Joseph Gallagher 8.2% 9.0% 10.3% 9.6% 9.5% 9.6% 10.2% 8.5% 8.0% 8.0% 6.2% 3.0%
Lucia Marquez 1.8% 1.9% 2.5% 2.9% 3.1% 4.0% 3.8% 5.2% 7.0% 9.7% 16.4% 41.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.