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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy2.52+2.21vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy2.22+1.73vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.87+4.48vs Predicted
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4California State University Monterey Bay1.63+1.32vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz1.12+1.81vs Predicted
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6Santa Clara University1.55-0.37vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley1.48-1.51vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.61+0.17vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay0.50-0.42vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis0.42-1.11vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay0.36-2.01vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego0.43-3.29vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-1.63-0.12vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-0.54-2.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.21California Poly Maritime Academy2.520.3%1st Place
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3.73California Poly Maritime Academy2.220.2%1st Place
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7.48University of California at Berkeley0.870.1%1st Place
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5.32California State University Monterey Bay1.630.1%1st Place
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6.81University of California at Santa Cruz1.120.0%1st Place
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5.63Santa Clara University1.550.1%1st Place
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5.49University of California at Berkeley1.480.1%1st Place
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8.17University of California at Santa Cruz0.610.0%1st Place
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8.58California State University Monterey Bay0.500.0%1st Place
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8.89University of California at Davis0.420.0%1st Place
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8.99California State University Monterey Bay0.360.0%1st Place
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8.71University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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12.88University of California at Davis-1.630.0%1st Place
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11.1University of California at San Diego-0.540.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Lynch | 26.1% | 21.8% | 15.8% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Doyle | 19.5% | 18.4% | 15.1% | 13.8% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Dylan Skeffington | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 1.2% |
| Mark Hurdle | 8.0% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ian Spilman | 4.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 0.5% |
| Dylan Ale | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jacob Hiew | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Mike McCarthy | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 2.0% |
| Christina Stege | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 7.9% | 2.2% |
| Lucas Murray | 3.2% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 14.8% | 9.4% | 3.7% |
| David Macko | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 3.5% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 3.9% |
| Michelle Christensen | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 6.8% | 12.5% | 66.6% |
| Jason Barr | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 8.4% | 15.4% | 30.8% | 16.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.