Race 12A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Ella Reinemann 6.8% 6.3% 7.9% 7.1% 7.5% 8.2% 10.0% 9.3% 9.4% 10.4% 10.1% 7.0%
Tarkan Bolat 16.2% 15.8% 14.1% 12.2% 11.2% 8.8% 6.7% 7.0% 4.2% 2.9% 0.9% 0.1%
Joseph Gallagher 8.2% 10.1% 9.1% 9.6% 8.4% 9.3% 9.5% 8.4% 9.2% 8.6% 6.9% 2.9%
Marissa Tegeder 5.1% 4.4% 5.5% 4.8% 6.5% 6.3% 7.8% 9.2% 10.4% 12.1% 15.7% 12.2%
Donny Marwin 3.6% 3.2% 4.3% 6.3% 5.2% 6.3% 7.5% 7.5% 9.6% 11.8% 15.7% 19.0%
William Carroll 10.4% 9.1% 10.7% 10.0% 10.8% 9.8% 9.1% 9.0% 7.9% 6.9% 4.2% 2.1%
Rachel Bartel 10.3% 9.2% 8.8% 10.1% 8.3% 10.2% 9.2% 8.7% 9.2% 7.9% 5.5% 2.6%
Liam Walz 10.5% 11.1% 11.8% 10.2% 10.8% 9.7% 8.5% 8.6% 6.7% 5.8% 4.0% 2.4%
Jenna Probst 12.2% 11.8% 11.8% 10.5% 11.1% 10.7% 9.1% 8.0% 5.9% 4.0% 3.4% 1.5%
Odey Hariri 7.3% 9.7% 7.5% 8.6% 9.8% 9.1% 7.8% 10.6% 10.8% 8.5% 6.8% 3.5%
Will Davies 7.3% 7.3% 5.7% 7.6% 7.0% 7.6% 10.0% 8.2% 9.8% 12.0% 11.2% 6.0%
Lucia Marquez 2.0% 2.0% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% 4.0% 4.9% 5.6% 6.8% 9.3% 15.7% 40.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.