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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy2.52+2.23vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy2.22+1.71vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.87+4.45vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley1.48+1.70vs Predicted
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5California State University Monterey Bay1.63+0.40vs Predicted
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6University of California at Davis0.42+2.89vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.61+0.99vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz1.12-1.32vs Predicted
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9Santa Clara University1.55-3.37vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay0.50-1.40vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay0.36-2.03vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego0.43-3.26vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-0.54-1.92vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-1.63-1.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.23California Poly Maritime Academy2.520.3%1st Place
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3.71California Poly Maritime Academy2.220.2%1st Place
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7.45University of California at Berkeley0.870.0%1st Place
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5.7University of California at Berkeley1.480.1%1st Place
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5.4California State University Monterey Bay1.630.1%1st Place
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8.89University of California at Davis0.420.0%1st Place
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7.99University of California at Santa Cruz0.610.0%1st Place
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6.68University of California at Santa Cruz1.120.1%1st Place
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5.63Santa Clara University1.550.1%1st Place
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8.6California State University Monterey Bay0.500.0%1st Place
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8.97California State University Monterey Bay0.360.0%1st Place
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8.74University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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11.08University of California at San Diego-0.540.0%1st Place
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12.92University of California at Davis-1.630.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Lynch | 25.5% | 21.9% | 16.1% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Doyle | 20.5% | 17.8% | 15.3% | 14.6% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Skeffington | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 0.5% |
| Jacob Hiew | 7.0% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Mark Hurdle | 8.9% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Lucas Murray | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 4.1% |
| Mike McCarthy | 3.7% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 12.5% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 1.7% |
| Ian Spilman | 6.7% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Dylan Ale | 8.9% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Christina Stege | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 8.3% | 3.3% |
| David Macko | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 3.3% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 3.1% |
| Jason Barr | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 15.3% | 28.7% | 17.9% |
| Michelle Christensen | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 14.1% | 64.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.