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📊 Prediction Accuracy
71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Santa Clara University1.55+4.51vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy2.22+1.74vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy2.52+0.17vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley0.87+3.44vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley1.48+0.85vs Predicted
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6California State University Monterey Bay1.63-0.56vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.61+0.98vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis0.42+0.67vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz1.12-2.22vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay0.50-1.32vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay0.36-1.97vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-0.54-0.77vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-1.63-0.12vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego0.43-5.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.51Santa Clara University1.550.1%1st Place
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3.74California Poly Maritime Academy2.220.2%1st Place
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3.17California Poly Maritime Academy2.520.3%1st Place
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7.44University of California at Berkeley0.870.0%1st Place
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5.85University of California at Berkeley1.480.1%1st Place
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5.44California State University Monterey Bay1.630.1%1st Place
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7.98University of California at Santa Cruz0.610.0%1st Place
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8.67University of California at Davis0.420.0%1st Place
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6.78University of California at Santa Cruz1.120.1%1st Place
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8.68California State University Monterey Bay0.500.0%1st Place
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9.03California State University Monterey Bay0.360.0%1st Place
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11.23University of California at San Diego-0.540.0%1st Place
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12.88University of California at Davis-1.630.0%1st Place
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8.6University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Ale | 9.3% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Scott Doyle | 19.4% | 18.2% | 15.7% | 14.6% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Corey Lynch | 27.7% | 20.1% | 15.2% | 12.6% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Skeffington | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 9.7% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 1.0% |
| Jacob Hiew | 7.1% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Mark Hurdle | 9.7% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Mike McCarthy | 3.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 1.3% |
| Lucas Murray | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 2.9% |
| Ian Spilman | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Christina Stege | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 2.7% |
| David Macko | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 12.7% | 14.7% | 11.8% | 3.5% |
| Jason Barr | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 16.5% | 28.5% | 18.5% |
| Michelle Christensen | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 6.1% | 13.4% | 66.3% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 8.1% | 2.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.