Race 1B

mcsa-fall

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Hailey Feinzig 9.8% 9.8% 10.4% 10.0% 9.8% 9.8% 10.0% 9.6% 8.6% 6.5% 4.0% 1.6% 0.2%
Sherman Thompson 13.1% 13.1% 11.2% 11.2% 11.2% 9.8% 9.4% 6.9% 6.8% 4.0% 2.6% 0.4% 0.1%
Lillian Nemeth 9.7% 10.9% 9.4% 10.4% 8.9% 10.0% 8.6% 10.0% 8.8% 7.4% 4.1% 1.7% 0.2%
Michael Rivkin 10.0% 9.4% 9.3% 8.6% 11.2% 9.4% 10.7% 9.8% 9.7% 6.1% 4.0% 1.5% 0.1%
Andrew Michels 10.9% 11.7% 11.1% 11.4% 10.2% 10.5% 8.9% 8.4% 7.2% 6.0% 2.5% 1.0% 0.2%
Greg Bittle 8.0% 7.1% 8.5% 9.2% 9.2% 9.5% 10.2% 9.3% 9.7% 9.4% 6.9% 2.9% 0.2%
Mary Castellini 10.2% 9.3% 9.9% 9.6% 9.7% 10.0% 9.0% 9.7% 8.6% 7.6% 4.9% 1.3% 0.3%
Emma Turner 7.5% 8.3% 8.4% 9.0% 10.0% 9.2% 8.6% 9.6% 10.3% 9.7% 6.5% 2.6% 0.2%
River Martin 1.3% 1.1% 1.4% 1.7% 2.2% 1.6% 3.0% 3.7% 4.7% 8.1% 16.2% 29.1% 26.1%
Nicholas Peluchiwski 13.5% 12.6% 12.3% 11.8% 9.6% 9.7% 9.6% 7.5% 6.2% 4.6% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Chase Ireland 3.2% 3.6% 4.8% 3.8% 4.5% 5.5% 6.6% 8.3% 9.6% 15.4% 17.8% 13.2% 3.8%
Russell English 0.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 1.8% 2.2% 4.4% 7.8% 20.9% 57.0%
Arthur Brown 2.1% 2.1% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 4.0% 4.2% 5.3% 7.4% 10.9% 20.6% 23.4% 11.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.