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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy2.22+2.83vs Predicted
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2California State University Monterey Bay1.63+3.16vs Predicted
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3Santa Clara University1.55+2.51vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.61+4.26vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.87+2.58vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz1.12+0.90vs Predicted
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7University of California at Davis0.42+1.46vs Predicted
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8California State University Monterey Bay0.50+0.47vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay0.36+0.04vs Predicted
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10California Poly Maritime Academy2.52-6.73vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley1.48-5.21vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-0.54-0.76vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-1.63-0.10vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego0.43-5.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.83California Poly Maritime Academy2.220.2%1st Place
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5.16California State University Monterey Bay1.630.1%1st Place
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5.51Santa Clara University1.550.1%1st Place
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8.26University of California at Santa Cruz0.610.0%1st Place
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7.58University of California at Berkeley0.870.0%1st Place
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6.9University of California at Santa Cruz1.120.1%1st Place
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8.46University of California at Davis0.420.0%1st Place
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8.47California State University Monterey Bay0.500.0%1st Place
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9.04California State University Monterey Bay0.360.0%1st Place
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3.27California Poly Maritime Academy2.520.2%1st Place
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5.79University of California at Berkeley1.480.1%1st Place
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11.24University of California at San Diego-0.540.0%1st Place
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12.9University of California at Davis-1.630.0%1st Place
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8.6University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Doyle | 18.6% | 19.7% | 15.3% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mark Hurdle | 11.3% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Ale | 9.8% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Mike McCarthy | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 7.3% | 1.7% |
| Dylan Skeffington | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 1.0% |
| Ian Spilman | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Lucas Murray | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 2.0% |
| Christina Stege | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 3.0% |
| David Macko | 3.2% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 4.0% |
| Corey Lynch | 23.3% | 23.4% | 15.1% | 12.8% | 10.0% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Hiew | 8.6% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 12.2% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Jason Barr | 0.8% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 16.2% | 29.7% | 18.4% |
| Michelle Christensen | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 13.7% | 66.6% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 8.7% | 2.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.