Race 2B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Hailey Feinzig 11.1% 10.1% 11.7% 10.6% 11.0% 11.9% 10.0% 9.8% 7.8% 4.2% 1.8% 0.1%
Lillian Nemeth 11.7% 9.8% 10.7% 10.3% 9.8% 10.1% 10.9% 9.3% 9.2% 5.7% 2.4% 0.2%
Mary Castellini 9.2% 11.3% 10.3% 9.8% 10.5% 11.6% 10.5% 10.4% 8.9% 5.6% 1.8% 0.1%
Sherman Thompson 15.6% 13.8% 12.0% 12.0% 11.2% 10.7% 8.9% 8.2% 4.8% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Greg Bittle 7.5% 7.5% 8.9% 10.2% 9.9% 10.4% 12.2% 11.8% 10.8% 6.9% 3.2% 0.6%
Michael Rivkin 10.8% 11.8% 11.4% 10.8% 11.2% 10.2% 10.0% 9.8% 8.0% 4.9% 1.1% 0.2%
Nicholas Peluchiwski 14.5% 13.8% 12.1% 11.8% 12.2% 10.7% 8.3% 7.4% 5.2% 2.9% 1.0% 0.0%
Andrew Michels 12.7% 13.3% 12.0% 13.4% 11.9% 9.9% 8.7% 7.4% 6.0% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2%
Chase Ireland 3.3% 4.3% 5.5% 5.1% 5.1% 7.0% 8.5% 10.5% 15.3% 18.2% 13.2% 4.0%
Arthur Brown 2.5% 2.3% 3.5% 3.4% 3.8% 3.6% 5.7% 6.7% 12.0% 22.4% 23.2% 11.0%
Russell English 0.7% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 1.1% 1.4% 2.2% 2.5% 4.4% 8.6% 20.4% 56.0%
River Martin 0.6% 1.2% 0.9% 1.8% 2.5% 2.5% 4.1% 6.1% 7.4% 15.0% 30.5% 27.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.