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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy2.38+1.92vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley1.06+3.78vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy1.58+1.58vs Predicted
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4California State University Monterey Bay0.61+3.25vs Predicted
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5California State University Monterey Bay0.84+1.70vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+0.58vs Predicted
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7Santa Clara University1.42-2.22vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.79-1.34vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-0.36+0.86vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.92-3.58vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-1.55+1.22vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay-1.45+0.05vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-1.28-1.38vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego0.43-6.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.92California Poly Maritime Academy2.380.3%1st Place
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5.78University of California at Berkeley1.060.1%1st Place
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4.58California Poly Maritime Academy1.580.1%1st Place
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7.25California State University Monterey Bay0.610.0%1st Place
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6.7California State University Monterey Bay0.840.1%1st Place
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6.58University of California at Santa Cruz0.860.1%1st Place
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4.78Santa Clara University1.420.1%1st Place
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6.66University of California at Santa Cruz0.790.1%1st Place
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9.86University of California at San Diego-0.360.0%1st Place
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6.42University of California at Berkeley0.920.1%1st Place
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12.22University of California at Davis-1.550.0%1st Place
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12.05California State University Monterey Bay-1.450.0%1st Place
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11.62University of California at Davis-1.280.0%1st Place
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7.58University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Lamb | 30.4% | 22.6% | 16.0% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Bordes | 7.3% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Gunnell | 12.9% | 15.2% | 13.5% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 4.1% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 9.1% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Parker Smith | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Alex Verdoia | 6.8% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Francesca Cappellini | 12.8% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Georgia Cottong | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Nils-Erik Rundquist | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 20.5% | 18.6% | 12.5% | 4.7% |
| Ian Markowitz | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Connor Bockman | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 14.4% | 28.5% | 35.3% |
| Casey Weisenseel | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 9.6% | 16.5% | 24.4% | 33.5% |
| Alexandra Bischak | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 10.1% | 19.7% | 24.3% | 24.7% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 14.5% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.