Race 3B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Sherman Thompson 14.3% 14.2% 13.2% 13.4% 9.6% 9.8% 8.8% 8.2% 5.2% 2.5% 0.8% 0.1%
Hailey Feinzig 11.7% 9.4% 11.5% 12.2% 11.3% 10.8% 9.8% 10.1% 7.3% 4.2% 1.4% 0.2%
Mary Castellini 10.2% 11.6% 10.2% 10.4% 11.1% 10.7% 10.8% 9.6% 7.4% 5.9% 1.8% 0.4%
Andrew Michels 12.2% 11.6% 12.3% 12.6% 10.8% 10.7% 9.6% 9.5% 6.7% 3.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Michael Rivkin 12.2% 10.5% 10.4% 10.1% 11.6% 11.1% 9.4% 9.8% 8.6% 4.3% 1.8% 0.2%
Chase Ireland 3.3% 4.5% 3.7% 5.2% 5.2% 6.7% 9.2% 9.3% 17.4% 19.1% 12.6% 3.8%
Nicholas Peluchiwski 12.9% 13.9% 12.3% 12.0% 11.8% 10.2% 9.6% 7.9% 6.0% 2.5% 0.9% 0.1%
Greg Bittle 8.9% 8.7% 10.4% 8.5% 10.8% 9.8% 10.6% 12.2% 10.0% 6.8% 2.8% 0.5%
Lillian Nemeth 10.1% 10.0% 10.3% 10.7% 10.5% 12.1% 11.5% 10.2% 8.0% 4.8% 1.8% 0.3%
Arthur Brown 1.9% 2.5% 2.9% 2.3% 3.4% 4.2% 6.0% 6.9% 11.8% 22.0% 24.2% 11.8%
River Martin 1.6% 1.9% 1.5% 1.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 4.7% 7.3% 15.5% 31.6% 26.1%
Russell English 0.8% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 1.2% 1.5% 1.8% 1.9% 4.3% 9.0% 19.8% 56.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.