Race 4B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Hailey Feinzig 11.5% 11.7% 10.8% 11.3% 10.3% 11.0% 11.2% 8.8% 7.3% 4.2% 1.7% 0.1%
Mary Castellini 11.8% 9.0% 9.2% 9.8% 10.7% 11.7% 12.2% 9.3% 8.7% 5.5% 2.1% 0.1%
Sherman Thompson 14.8% 13.5% 15.8% 11.8% 10.7% 9.4% 8.3% 7.5% 5.3% 2.1% 0.8% 0.1%
Andrew Michels 13.7% 12.4% 12.3% 12.3% 12.4% 9.9% 7.8% 9.1% 5.5% 3.4% 1.0% 0.1%
Chase Ireland 3.0% 4.2% 4.2% 5.3% 4.8% 7.1% 7.6% 11.1% 15.8% 19.4% 13.2% 4.0%
Greg Bittle 7.4% 9.6% 9.2% 9.2% 11.2% 10.2% 10.4% 10.6% 11.8% 6.9% 2.8% 0.6%
Nicholas Peluchiwski 14.1% 14.3% 11.8% 12.4% 11.9% 9.8% 9.6% 7.1% 5.7% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Michael Rivkin 10.0% 11.3% 10.7% 10.3% 10.1% 10.6% 11.6% 10.9% 8.0% 5.2% 1.1% 0.2%
Arthur Brown 2.0% 2.5% 2.8% 4.2% 3.6% 4.2% 5.5% 7.0% 11.3% 22.2% 23.6% 11.1%
Lillian Nemeth 10.2% 10.0% 10.7% 10.3% 11.1% 12.0% 10.5% 10.5% 7.2% 5.5% 1.8% 0.1%
Russell English 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 1.2% 1.4% 2.0% 2.7% 4.9% 7.4% 20.2% 57.2%
River Martin 1.0% 0.9% 1.6% 2.0% 1.9% 2.7% 3.2% 5.5% 8.2% 15.6% 31.1% 26.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.