Race 5B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Hailey Feinzig 10.0% 11.2% 11.4% 12.0% 10.9% 11.2% 11.1% 8.9% 7.2% 4.3% 1.5% 0.2%
Sherman Thompson 14.3% 14.3% 14.7% 12.0% 10.7% 10.7% 8.8% 7.3% 4.4% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1%
Greg Bittle 8.3% 8.3% 9.7% 8.3% 10.4% 10.4% 10.4% 12.3% 10.8% 7.2% 2.9% 0.7%
Mary Castellini 10.5% 9.8% 9.5% 11.2% 9.8% 11.8% 10.0% 11.2% 8.3% 5.8% 1.8% 0.2%
Nicholas Peluchiwski 13.1% 13.7% 13.2% 11.6% 11.2% 10.5% 9.2% 7.4% 6.4% 2.9% 0.9% 0.1%
Lillian Nemeth 9.8% 9.5% 8.8% 11.0% 11.6% 11.1% 10.9% 10.4% 8.6% 5.9% 1.9% 0.4%
Chase Ireland 3.6% 4.1% 5.1% 4.9% 5.9% 6.8% 7.6% 9.7% 17.3% 18.1% 12.8% 4.1%
Russell English 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% 1.5% 1.6% 2.1% 3.1% 4.5% 8.2% 19.8% 55.6%
Michael Rivkin 13.4% 11.4% 9.6% 10.5% 11.9% 10.0% 9.8% 9.3% 6.8% 5.4% 1.8% 0.1%
River Martin 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 2.1% 2.5% 1.8% 3.0% 4.5% 7.5% 15.8% 31.9% 27.3%
Arthur Brown 2.0% 1.9% 3.1% 3.2% 3.4% 4.2% 6.3% 8.0% 11.8% 22.0% 22.8% 11.2%
Andrew Michels 13.2% 13.6% 12.6% 12.1% 10.3% 9.8% 10.7% 7.7% 6.4% 2.2% 1.5% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.