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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy2.38+1.92vs Predicted
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2Santa Clara University1.42+2.85vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+3.44vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.79+2.74vs Predicted
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5California State University Monterey Bay0.84+1.70vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.92+0.45vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego0.43+0.44vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley1.06-2.07vs Predicted
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9California Poly Maritime Academy1.58-4.35vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-0.36-0.15vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-1.55+1.22vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay-1.45+0.07vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-1.28-1.38vs Predicted
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14California State University Monterey Bay0.61-6.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.92California Poly Maritime Academy2.380.3%1st Place
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4.85Santa Clara University1.420.1%1st Place
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6.44University of California at Santa Cruz0.860.1%1st Place
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6.74University of California at Santa Cruz0.790.0%1st Place
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6.7California State University Monterey Bay0.840.1%1st Place
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6.45University of California at Berkeley0.920.1%1st Place
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7.44University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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5.93University of California at Berkeley1.060.1%1st Place
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4.65California Poly Maritime Academy1.580.1%1st Place
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9.85University of California at San Diego-0.360.0%1st Place
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12.22University of California at Davis-1.550.0%1st Place
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12.07California State University Monterey Bay-1.450.0%1st Place
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11.62University of California at Davis-1.280.0%1st Place
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7.12California State University Monterey Bay0.610.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Lamb | 29.8% | 23.3% | 15.5% | 11.7% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Cappellini | 11.4% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Alex Verdoia | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Georgia Cottong | 4.5% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Parker Smith | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Ian Markowitz | 7.2% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Stephen Bordes | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Gunnell | 13.3% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nils-Erik Rundquist | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 12.2% | 16.4% | 18.7% | 13.8% | 4.6% |
| Connor Bockman | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 7.5% | 13.6% | 28.2% | 35.8% |
| Casey Weisenseel | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 8.5% | 18.6% | 23.4% | 33.5% |
| Alexandra Bischak | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 10.2% | 20.0% | 24.3% | 24.7% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.