Race 6B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Hailey Feinzig 10.3% 10.4% 11.3% 11.8% 10.8% 10.9% 10.2% 10.1% 7.1% 5.1% 1.9% 0.1%
Sherman Thompson 15.3% 14.3% 13.0% 11.6% 11.3% 10.2% 8.5% 7.2% 5.9% 1.9% 0.7% 0.0%
Michael Rivkin 11.6% 10.4% 11.1% 10.9% 11.3% 10.2% 10.3% 8.8% 8.4% 5.3% 1.4% 0.2%
Greg Bittle 8.0% 9.8% 8.8% 9.4% 10.8% 10.1% 11.2% 12.2% 10.1% 6.8% 2.5% 0.5%
Nicholas Peluchiwski 14.9% 12.2% 12.7% 12.8% 10.2% 10.2% 9.3% 8.2% 5.6% 2.5% 1.1% 0.1%
Lillian Nemeth 10.3% 10.2% 9.1% 10.5% 11.8% 11.5% 10.4% 10.4% 9.0% 4.7% 1.8% 0.1%
Mary Castellini 9.5% 10.6% 11.4% 10.1% 10.3% 11.1% 10.9% 10.8% 8.6% 4.5% 1.8% 0.4%
Andrew Michels 12.7% 13.3% 12.6% 11.3% 12.3% 10.5% 9.6% 7.4% 5.8% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2%
Chase Ireland 3.4% 4.3% 5.1% 5.0% 4.8% 6.0% 8.8% 10.9% 16.0% 17.7% 13.7% 4.5%
Arthur Brown 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 3.6% 3.7% 5.1% 5.2% 6.6% 12.3% 23.2% 22.6% 10.4%
River Martin 0.9% 1.1% 1.8% 2.0% 1.9% 2.8% 3.6% 4.7% 7.0% 15.7% 32.6% 26.1%
Russell English 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 1.2% 1.9% 2.8% 4.2% 9.2% 19.2% 57.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.