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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California State University Monterey Bay0.61+6.15vs Predicted
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2Santa Clara University1.42+2.84vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley1.06+2.94vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy2.38-1.05vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy1.58-0.30vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+0.64vs Predicted
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7California State University Monterey Bay0.84-0.66vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.79-1.33vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.43-1.24vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay-1.45+2.05vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley0.92-4.58vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-0.36-2.20vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-1.55-0.91vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-1.28-2.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.15California State University Monterey Bay0.610.0%1st Place
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4.84Santa Clara University1.420.1%1st Place
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5.94University of California at Berkeley1.060.1%1st Place
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2.95California Poly Maritime Academy2.380.3%1st Place
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4.7California Poly Maritime Academy1.580.1%1st Place
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6.64University of California at Santa Cruz0.860.1%1st Place
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6.34California State University Monterey Bay0.840.1%1st Place
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6.67University of California at Santa Cruz0.790.1%1st Place
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7.76University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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12.05California State University Monterey Bay-1.450.0%1st Place
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6.42University of California at Berkeley0.920.1%1st Place
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9.8University of California at San Diego-0.360.0%1st Place
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12.09University of California at Davis-1.550.0%1st Place
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11.64University of California at Davis-1.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Gibbons | 4.6% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Francesca Cappellini | 11.4% | 13.0% | 14.0% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Stephen Bordes | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Lamb | 28.5% | 23.2% | 16.5% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Gunnell | 11.2% | 12.6% | 15.7% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Verdoia | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Parker Smith | 7.6% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Georgia Cottong | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Casey Weisenseel | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 4.8% | 9.0% | 16.5% | 24.5% | 33.9% |
| Ian Markowitz | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Nils-Erik Rundquist | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 12.9% | 17.6% | 16.6% | 12.5% | 5.8% |
| Connor Bockman | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 7.4% | 16.6% | 24.1% | 35.6% |
| Alexandra Bischak | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 9.5% | 17.5% | 28.1% | 23.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.