Race 9B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Sherman Thompson 14.6% 13.8% 13.6% 12.7% 11.2% 10.0% 8.2% 7.7% 5.1% 2.4% 0.8% 0.0%
Greg Bittle 9.8% 8.2% 9.2% 9.9% 9.6% 11.1% 10.8% 10.8% 11.6% 6.4% 2.5% 0.4%
Hailey Feinzig 11.4% 11.5% 10.9% 10.3% 11.2% 11.2% 11.0% 10.0% 6.4% 4.2% 1.6% 0.2%
Nicholas Peluchiwski 14.1% 13.7% 12.0% 11.9% 11.5% 9.8% 9.8% 8.4% 5.7% 2.4% 0.7% 0.0%
Lillian Nemeth 10.1% 11.2% 9.5% 10.9% 11.6% 10.4% 10.2% 10.2% 8.2% 5.7% 1.9% 0.2%
Mary Castellini 10.3% 9.3% 10.7% 10.9% 11.6% 12.1% 9.8% 10.1% 8.3% 4.9% 1.8% 0.1%
Andrew Michels 12.8% 13.0% 12.7% 12.0% 10.9% 9.9% 10.3% 8.5% 5.2% 3.5% 1.1% 0.1%
Chase Ireland 3.9% 3.8% 4.3% 4.7% 6.2% 7.2% 7.5% 9.0% 18.4% 18.8% 12.5% 3.6%
Michael Rivkin 9.7% 11.5% 11.8% 11.2% 9.7% 10.2% 11.3% 10.6% 7.1% 4.9% 1.7% 0.2%
Arthur Brown 1.7% 2.2% 2.9% 2.8% 3.0% 4.4% 5.1% 8.0% 11.2% 23.3% 23.9% 11.6%
River Martin 1.1% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 2.5% 2.4% 3.6% 4.7% 8.0% 14.2% 32.1% 26.8%
Russell English 0.5% 0.4% 0.8% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 2.4% 2.2% 4.8% 9.2% 19.5% 56.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.