Race 10B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Sherman Thompson 14.1% 13.9% 14.1% 12.8% 12.7% 10.3% 8.6% 7.0% 4.2% 1.5% 0.9% 0.0%
Lillian Nemeth 11.6% 10.8% 9.6% 10.7% 10.7% 11.1% 9.5% 10.8% 8.8% 4.9% 1.5% 0.1%
Michael Rivkin 10.3% 10.5% 11.8% 11.0% 10.0% 11.0% 10.4% 10.2% 7.4% 5.6% 1.2% 0.3%
Mary Castellini 10.9% 9.2% 10.0% 11.3% 10.6% 9.4% 11.1% 10.3% 8.8% 5.9% 2.1% 0.2%
Andrew Michels 12.8% 12.4% 12.5% 12.2% 10.9% 10.9% 10.3% 8.1% 5.8% 3.2% 0.4% 0.4%
Nicholas Peluchiwski 12.6% 14.6% 12.7% 10.8% 11.1% 10.9% 10.1% 7.5% 6.0% 2.8% 1.1% 0.0%
Hailey Feinzig 10.8% 11.9% 9.5% 11.2% 11.8% 10.5% 11.0% 9.2% 8.5% 3.5% 1.6% 0.4%
Greg Bittle 9.2% 8.3% 9.7% 9.0% 9.9% 9.9% 11.5% 11.1% 11.0% 7.0% 2.8% 0.6%
Chase Ireland 3.9% 4.0% 4.6% 4.7% 5.2% 7.5% 7.1% 10.9% 16.1% 19.8% 12.3% 3.9%
Arthur Brown 2.4% 1.9% 2.5% 3.7% 4.0% 4.2% 4.9% 7.0% 10.8% 22.5% 23.8% 12.1%
Russell English 0.4% 0.6% 1.1% 0.9% 1.3% 1.5% 2.1% 2.8% 4.8% 7.2% 21.1% 56.2%
River Martin 1.1% 1.7% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 2.6% 3.3% 5.1% 7.8% 16.1% 31.1% 25.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.