Race 11B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Sherman Thompson 12.9% 13.4% 13.0% 12.5% 11.5% 10.2% 9.1% 8.5% 5.8% 2.5% 0.8% 0.1%
Hailey Feinzig 11.0% 9.8% 11.4% 11.3% 11.4% 10.1% 10.3% 11.2% 7.8% 4.0% 1.6% 0.4%
Michael Rivkin 9.7% 10.5% 9.7% 11.2% 10.6% 11.2% 10.4% 10.2% 8.6% 5.6% 1.8% 0.3%
Chase Ireland 3.3% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 5.1% 7.0% 8.6% 10.1% 16.8% 19.4% 12.2% 4.0%
Lillian Nemeth 9.9% 10.3% 10.0% 10.3% 11.8% 10.7% 10.2% 10.2% 9.3% 5.7% 1.7% 0.1%
Greg Bittle 8.8% 7.8% 8.4% 9.6% 10.6% 10.8% 11.5% 10.4% 11.7% 7.2% 2.9% 0.4%
Andrew Michels 12.2% 12.8% 12.1% 12.2% 11.3% 11.2% 10.1% 8.4% 5.6% 3.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Thomas Szymanski 18.1% 16.4% 14.6% 12.3% 11.7% 9.7% 6.9% 5.7% 3.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Arthur Brown 2.1% 2.4% 2.6% 3.1% 3.0% 4.6% 5.9% 8.2% 12.2% 23.1% 21.9% 10.9%
Mary Castellini 10.2% 10.5% 12.0% 10.0% 10.1% 10.9% 11.8% 10.2% 7.0% 5.0% 2.1% 0.2%
River Martin 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 2.1% 1.9% 2.3% 3.1% 4.9% 8.0% 14.2% 32.1% 27.9%
Russell English 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.9% 1.1% 1.4% 2.1% 2.2% 4.0% 8.8% 22.0% 55.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.