Race 12B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Hailey Feinzig 10.4% 9.8% 10.2% 10.0% 11.6% 12.4% 10.5% 10.7% 7.8% 5.2% 1.2% 0.3%
Sherman Thompson 14.8% 13.3% 12.5% 12.3% 11.9% 10.2% 9.2% 7.2% 5.3% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Lillian Nemeth 9.3% 10.6% 10.8% 11.1% 10.3% 10.0% 11.5% 10.3% 8.8% 5.1% 1.8% 0.4%
Thomas Szymanski 17.8% 16.7% 15.0% 14.1% 10.0% 9.3% 7.4% 5.4% 2.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Mary Castellini 10.4% 9.9% 10.7% 9.2% 10.9% 11.2% 10.6% 11.2% 8.8% 4.8% 1.8% 0.4%
Greg Bittle 8.1% 9.2% 8.9% 9.4% 9.8% 9.6% 10.2% 11.5% 11.8% 7.5% 3.3% 0.6%
Michael Rivkin 10.4% 10.7% 10.4% 11.4% 11.1% 10.4% 10.8% 9.7% 9.3% 4.0% 1.5% 0.3%
Andrew Michels 11.1% 10.8% 11.7% 11.6% 11.5% 12.4% 10.7% 8.9% 6.2% 4.0% 0.9% 0.2%
Chase Ireland 3.2% 3.9% 4.5% 5.8% 5.5% 5.7% 8.3% 11.3% 16.1% 17.9% 13.6% 4.0%
Arthur Brown 2.1% 2.7% 3.3% 2.4% 4.3% 4.4% 5.0% 7.0% 11.7% 21.8% 23.5% 11.8%
River Martin 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 2.1% 1.9% 2.6% 3.9% 4.7% 7.9% 16.1% 30.6% 25.4%
Russell English 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.7% 1.1% 1.7% 1.8% 2.0% 3.9% 9.8% 20.6% 56.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.