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📊 Prediction Accuracy
71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Davis0.42+7.64vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy2.52+1.12vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy2.22+0.79vs Predicted
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4Santa Clara University1.55+1.57vs Predicted
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5California State University Monterey Bay1.63+0.45vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz1.12+0.82vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.87+0.23vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.61+0.22vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley1.48-3.25vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay0.50-1.32vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.54+0.27vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay0.36-3.01vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego0.43-4.37vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-1.55-1.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.64University of California at Davis0.420.0%1st Place
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3.12California Poly Maritime Academy2.520.3%1st Place
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3.79California Poly Maritime Academy2.220.2%1st Place
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5.57Santa Clara University1.550.1%1st Place
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5.45California State University Monterey Bay1.630.1%1st Place
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6.82University of California at Santa Cruz1.120.1%1st Place
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7.23University of California at Berkeley0.870.0%1st Place
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8.22University of California at Santa Cruz0.610.0%1st Place
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5.75University of California at Berkeley1.480.1%1st Place
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8.68California State University Monterey Bay0.500.0%1st Place
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11.27University of California at San Diego-0.540.0%1st Place
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8.99California State University Monterey Bay0.360.0%1st Place
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8.63University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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12.84University of California at Davis-1.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Murray | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 8.1% | 3.8% |
| Corey Lynch | 26.3% | 21.1% | 16.9% | 13.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Doyle | 19.3% | 17.5% | 16.2% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Ale | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Mark Hurdle | 8.0% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Ian Spilman | 6.2% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 0.2% |
| Dylan Skeffington | 4.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Mike McCarthy | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 8.2% | 2.4% |
| Jacob Hiew | 9.0% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 13.8% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Christina Stege | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 9.4% | 3.2% |
| Jason Barr | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 12.4% | 30.6% | 20.3% |
| David Macko | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 11.0% | 3.9% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 2.5% |
| Connor Bockman | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 14.7% | 62.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.