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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy2.22+2.86vs Predicted
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2California State University Monterey Bay1.63+3.14vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy2.52+0.17vs Predicted
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4Santa Clara University1.55+1.56vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley1.48+0.83vs Predicted
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6California State University Monterey Bay0.50+2.64vs Predicted
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7University of California at Davis0.42+1.52vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.87-0.58vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz0.61-0.72vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay0.36-0.92vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz1.12-4.19vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-0.54-0.82vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego0.43-4.35vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-1.55-1.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.86California Poly Maritime Academy2.220.2%1st Place
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5.14California State University Monterey Bay1.630.1%1st Place
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3.17California Poly Maritime Academy2.520.3%1st Place
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5.56Santa Clara University1.550.1%1st Place
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5.83University of California at Berkeley1.480.1%1st Place
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8.64California State University Monterey Bay0.500.0%1st Place
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8.52University of California at Davis0.420.0%1st Place
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7.42University of California at Berkeley0.870.1%1st Place
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8.28University of California at Santa Cruz0.610.0%1st Place
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9.08California State University Monterey Bay0.360.0%1st Place
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6.81University of California at Santa Cruz1.120.1%1st Place
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11.18University of California at San Diego-0.540.0%1st Place
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8.65University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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12.85University of California at Davis-1.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Doyle | 18.4% | 18.7% | 17.3% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mark Hurdle | 10.1% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Corey Lynch | 27.1% | 19.4% | 15.7% | 14.1% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Ale | 8.0% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Jacob Hiew | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Christina Stege | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 3.3% |
| Lucas Murray | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 12.9% | 8.5% | 2.7% |
| Dylan Skeffington | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 1.1% |
| Mike McCarthy | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 2.1% |
| David Macko | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 12.1% | 4.6% |
| Ian Spilman | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 0.2% |
| Jason Barr | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 29.4% | 18.2% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 9.2% | 3.4% |
| Connor Bockman | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 14.1% | 63.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.