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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy2.38+1.74vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley1.06+3.34vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.92+2.84vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy1.58+0.28vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+1.14vs Predicted
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6California State University Monterey Bay0.84+0.17vs Predicted
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7California State University Monterey Bay0.61-0.59vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis-2.90+5.18vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz0.02-0.78vs Predicted
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10-0.62-0.17vs Predicted
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11Santa Clara University1.42-6.29vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-0.36-2.82vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay-1.45-1.66vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-1.61-2.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.74California Poly Maritime Academy2.380.3%1st Place
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5.34University of California at Berkeley1.060.1%1st Place
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5.84University of California at Berkeley0.920.1%1st Place
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4.28California Poly Maritime Academy1.580.1%1st Place
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6.14University of California at Santa Cruz0.860.1%1st Place
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6.17California State University Monterey Bay0.840.1%1st Place
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6.41California State University Monterey Bay0.610.1%1st Place
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13.18University of California at Davis-2.900.0%1st Place
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8.22University of California at Santa Cruz0.020.0%1st Place
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9.83-0.620.0%1st Place
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4.71Santa Clara University1.420.1%1st Place
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9.18University of California at San Diego-0.360.0%1st Place
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11.34California State University Monterey Bay-1.450.0%1st Place
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11.63University of California at Davis-1.610.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Lamb | 32.7% | 24.5% | 14.1% | 11.4% | 8.1% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Bordes | 8.5% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ian Markowitz | 6.8% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Gunnell | 13.2% | 15.3% | 15.1% | 13.6% | 12.9% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Verdoia | 5.5% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Parker Smith | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Sarah Stowell | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 14.4% | 68.0% |
| Kip Wanaselja | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 15.9% | 13.9% | 14.4% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Grant Lin | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 18.3% | 20.2% | 11.6% | 2.4% |
| Francesca Cappellini | 11.7% | 12.1% | 14.8% | 13.1% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nils-Erik Rundquist | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 14.9% | 16.0% | 14.4% | 8.3% | 1.4% |
| Casey Weisenseel | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 12.7% | 22.5% | 29.1% | 12.0% |
| Caroline Shimeld | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 6.0% | 12.4% | 19.7% | 32.3% | 15.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.