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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Santa Clara University1.42+3.60vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy2.38+0.67vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley1.06+2.50vs Predicted
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4California State University Monterey Bay0.61+2.70vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy1.58-0.64vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.92-0.01vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-1.21vs Predicted
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8California State University Monterey Bay0.84-1.95vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz0.02-0.75vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis-2.90+3.28vs Predicted
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11-0.62-1.23vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-0.36-2.85vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-1.61-1.43vs Predicted
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14California State University Monterey Bay-1.45-2.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.6Santa Clara University1.420.1%1st Place
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2.67California Poly Maritime Academy2.380.3%1st Place
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5.5University of California at Berkeley1.060.1%1st Place
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6.7California State University Monterey Bay0.610.0%1st Place
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4.36California Poly Maritime Academy1.580.1%1st Place
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5.99University of California at Berkeley0.920.1%1st Place
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5.79University of California at Santa Cruz0.860.1%1st Place
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6.05California State University Monterey Bay0.840.1%1st Place
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8.25University of California at Santa Cruz0.020.0%1st Place
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13.28University of California at Davis-2.900.0%1st Place
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9.77-0.620.0%1st Place
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9.15University of California at San Diego-0.360.0%1st Place
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11.57University of California at Davis-1.610.0%1st Place
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11.32California State University Monterey Bay-1.450.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francesca Cappellini | 12.8% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Lamb | 32.5% | 24.1% | 17.2% | 12.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Bordes | 8.3% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Gunnell | 12.2% | 15.1% | 14.4% | 15.2% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Markowitz | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alex Verdoia | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Parker Smith | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kip Wanaselja | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 13.2% | 15.3% | 15.0% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 0.3% |
| Sarah Stowell | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 15.8% | 71.3% |
| Grant Lin | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 13.7% | 17.6% | 19.6% | 11.8% | 1.8% |
| Nils-Erik Rundquist | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 15.1% | 17.5% | 14.3% | 6.6% | 1.6% |
| Caroline Shimeld | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 22.0% | 31.6% | 15.0% |
| Casey Weisenseel | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 12.1% | 24.3% | 29.4% | 10.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.