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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.66+9.49vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.47+5.24vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.99+5.24vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.24+4.18vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.10+6.04vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.85+0.02vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.90-1.43vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.05+4.47vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.20-3.03vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.42-1.49vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.34-2.46vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont1.58-1.78vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.79-5.35vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.66-3.58vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University1.32-1.09vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College2.29-8.54vs Predicted
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17Fairfield University0.73-3.87vs Predicted
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18Maine Maritime Academy-0.28-2.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.49U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.663.0%1st Place
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7.24Harvard University2.477.6%1st Place
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8.24Tufts University1.995.7%1st Place
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8.18Bowdoin College2.246.2%1st Place
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11.04University of Rhode Island2.102.8%1st Place
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6.02Brown University2.8512.2%1st Place
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5.57Dartmouth College2.9012.4%1st Place
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12.47Northeastern University1.051.9%1st Place
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5.97Yale University3.2010.7%1st Place
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8.51Roger Williams University2.426.5%1st Place
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8.54Boston College2.345.9%1st Place
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10.22University of Vermont1.583.9%1st Place
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7.65Boston University1.797.6%1st Place
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10.42Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.663.4%1st Place
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13.91Salve Regina University1.321.3%1st Place
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7.46Connecticut College2.297.2%1st Place
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13.13Fairfield University0.731.4%1st Place
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15.94Maine Maritime Academy-0.280.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Kickhafer | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 1.8% |
| Eli Burnes | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Samuel Merson | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Alden Grimes | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Aidan naughton | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 7.0% | 3.2% |
| Connor Nelson | 12.2% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Robert Bragg | 12.4% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Hersey | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 13.5% | 7.2% |
| Shawn Harvey | 10.7% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Cartwright | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Jack DeNatale | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Connell Phillipps | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 1.8% |
| Tyler Mowry | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| John Ped | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 1.7% |
| Alex Bowdler | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 20.8% | 18.5% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 17.1% | 12.4% |
| Luke Healy | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 16.1% | 51.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.