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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hampton University2.28+6.16vs Predicted
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2Columbia University2.55+4.37vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+1.88vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.76+1.87vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.67+1.02vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania3.16-1.36vs Predicted
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7William and Mary1.37+3.34vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University2.46-1.46vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University2.40-2.18vs Predicted
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10Columbia University1.30+0.66vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.76-2.02vs Predicted
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12Drexel University1.64-2.50vs Predicted
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13U. S. Military Academy1.22-2.15vs Predicted
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14Stevens Institute of Technology0.57-1.33vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.55-2.11vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook0.94-4.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.16Hampton University2.280.1%1st Place
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6.37Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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4.88St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.2%1st Place
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5.87St. Mary's College of Maryland2.760.1%1st Place
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6.02George Washington University2.670.1%1st Place
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4.64University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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10.34William and Mary1.370.0%1st Place
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6.54Christopher Newport University2.460.1%1st Place
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6.82Old Dominion University2.400.1%1st Place
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10.66Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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8.98U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.760.0%1st Place
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9.5Drexel University1.640.0%1st Place
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10.85U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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12.67Stevens Institute of Technology0.570.0%1st Place
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12.89Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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11.83SUNY Stony Brook0.940.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veronica Maccari | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Conor Cashel | 9.1% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Carolyn Smith | 15.3% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Burgess | 9.5% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Hannah McNomee | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 14.2% | 15.6% | 13.8% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bill Parker | 2.8% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 5.6% |
| Ben Buhl | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Austin | 8.2% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 6.5% |
| Charles Skord | 4.4% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 2.4% |
| Chris Myers | 3.6% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 4.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 9.2% |
| Matthew Guenther | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 13.0% | 15.8% | 27.2% |
| Andrew Grasso | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 20.0% | 28.8% |
| Constantine Spentzos | 0.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 15.8% | 14.8% | 14.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.