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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.75+5.05vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.69+9.70vs Predicted
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3Boston University1.65+6.69vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.73+2.02vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.15+5.65vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+0.25vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.45+0.48vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-0.63vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.14-0.04vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.77-1.08vs Predicted
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11Brown University2.40-1.30vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University1.31-0.15vs Predicted
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13Harvard University2.31-6.01vs Predicted
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14Maine Maritime Academy0.48+0.43vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College1.95-5.82vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.85-3.27vs Predicted
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17Bowdoin College2.08-8.49vs Predicted
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18Fairfield University0.42-3.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.05Dartmouth College2.7511.4%1st Place
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11.7Northeastern University1.692.6%1st Place
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9.69Boston University1.654.7%1st Place
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6.02Yale University2.7310.6%1st Place
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10.65Tufts University2.153.3%1st Place
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6.25U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.489.8%1st Place
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7.48Roger Williams University2.457.1%1st Place
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7.37Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.318.9%1st Place
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8.96Boston College2.146.7%1st Place
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8.92University of Rhode Island1.775.5%1st Place
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9.7Brown University2.404.0%1st Place
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11.85Salve Regina University1.312.5%1st Place
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6.99Harvard University2.319.0%1st Place
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14.43Maine Maritime Academy0.481.1%1st Place
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9.18Connecticut College1.954.9%1st Place
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12.73University of Vermont0.852.1%1st Place
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8.51Bowdoin College2.084.5%1st Place
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14.51Fairfield University0.421.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddie Hawkins | 11.4% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 7.6% |
| Micky Munns | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 1.9% |
| Jack Egan | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 3.6% |
| Colman Schofield | 9.8% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Robert Hunter | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Parker Colantuono | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Jack Murphy | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| Nils Tullberg | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 6.7% |
| Henry Burnes | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Zachary York | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 11.2% | 18.2% | 29.7% |
| Walter Henry | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Nicholas Salvesen | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 14.0% | 14.0% |
| Christopher Lukens | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Nolan Cooper | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 18.6% | 29.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.