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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.16+4.23vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.38+1.23vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.56+2.64vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.02+2.68vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.24+1.25vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College0.13+3.23vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland1.35-1.41vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.44-2.02vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.30-2.62vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University1.37-4.23vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia-0.58-0.36vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.17-2.13vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.40-2.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.23U. S. Naval Academy2.1611.2%1st Place
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3.23Cornell University2.3824.3%1st Place
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5.64University of Pennsylvania1.569.4%1st Place
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6.68Fordham University1.026.6%1st Place
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6.25George Washington University1.247.0%1st Place
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9.23SUNY Maritime College0.132.1%1st Place
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5.59St. Mary's College of Maryland1.358.4%1st Place
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5.98Old Dominion University1.448.8%1st Place
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6.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.307.8%1st Place
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5.77Georgetown University1.379.2%1st Place
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10.64University of Virginia-0.581.7%1st Place
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9.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.172.4%1st Place
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10.51SUNY Stony Brook-0.401.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia de Olazarra | 11.2% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Bridget Green | 24.3% | 22.1% | 16.7% | 12.4% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Amanda Majernik | 9.4% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Victroia Flatley | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| Chiara Perotti Correa | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 0.5% |
| Clara Guarascio | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 17.4% | 16.4% | 11.7% |
| Katherine Bennett | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Bridget Groble | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Ella Withington | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 0.7% |
| Riley Kloc | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Hannah Mercurio | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 14.3% | 21.9% | 32.0% |
| Sunrae Sturmer | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 11.6% | 15.4% | 21.3% | 19.6% |
| Kristin Hess | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 13.5% | 20.2% | 32.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.