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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.16+4.26vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.02+4.70vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.44+3.04vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.38-0.74vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.72+0.22vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.24+0.31vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College0.13+2.07vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland1.35-2.25vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.30-2.59vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University1.37-4.17vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.17-0.92vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia-0.58-1.47vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.40-2.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.26U. S. Naval Academy2.1610.5%1st Place
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6.7Fordham University1.026.0%1st Place
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6.04Old Dominion University1.447.5%1st Place
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3.26Cornell University2.3824.3%1st Place
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5.22University of Pennsylvania1.7211.2%1st Place
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6.31George Washington University1.247.3%1st Place
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9.07SUNY Maritime College0.133.4%1st Place
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5.75St. Mary's College of Maryland1.359.4%1st Place
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6.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.307.5%1st Place
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5.83Georgetown University1.379.0%1st Place
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10.08U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.171.1%1st Place
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10.53University of Virginia-0.581.5%1st Place
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10.54SUNY Stony Brook-0.401.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia de Olazarra | 10.5% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Victroia Flatley | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 0.9% |
| Bridget Groble | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Bridget Green | 24.3% | 20.4% | 18.5% | 12.2% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 11.2% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Chiara Perotti Correa | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 0.7% |
| Clara Guarascio | 3.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 15.5% | 16.6% | 11.0% |
| Katherine Bennett | 9.4% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Ella Withington | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Riley Kloc | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Sunrae Sturmer | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 16.6% | 21.3% | 21.7% |
| Hannah Mercurio | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 22.4% | 31.4% |
| Kristin Hess | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 20.5% | 31.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.