Race 3B

maisa-fall-women

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Lilly Myers 12.2% 10.7% 11.7% 12.0% 11.2% 11.9% 10.0% 8.7% 5.9% 3.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Sofia Segalla 12.7% 14.3% 14.6% 12.8% 11.7% 10.1% 8.6% 6.6% 4.5% 2.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Emma AuBuchon 8.3% 8.5% 10.8% 10.2% 10.4% 11.7% 12.3% 10.4% 9.0% 5.2% 2.1% 0.9% 0.1%
Elizabeth Cutler 7.0% 7.9% 8.3% 8.8% 9.6% 10.0% 12.0% 11.1% 10.9% 7.8% 5.0% 1.6% 0.1%
Camille McGriff 6.1% 7.2% 6.3% 8.5% 9.6% 10.2% 11.6% 13.0% 12.0% 8.8% 5.0% 1.6% 0.2%
Lily Flack 4.1% 6.7% 5.0% 5.3% 6.4% 7.9% 8.9% 11.6% 14.0% 13.9% 9.0% 5.4% 1.9%
Piper Holthus 18.9% 18.1% 16.1% 13.0% 11.6% 8.5% 6.1% 4.3% 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Morgan Essex 1.8% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 3.2% 4.4% 4.1% 5.1% 8.2% 14.2% 19.8% 19.1% 13.8%
Eva Blauvelt 19.4% 14.8% 14.2% 13.5% 12.2% 10.4% 6.0% 4.7% 3.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Laura Smith 1.1% 1.4% 1.2% 1.6% 1.8% 1.9% 3.2% 3.5% 5.6% 10.8% 17.2% 22.4% 28.2%
Jessica Schaefer 0.9% 1.1% 1.7% 1.7% 2.5% 2.6% 3.6% 5.0% 7.0% 11.0% 16.9% 22.9% 23.2%
Elizabeth Gildea 6.5% 6.1% 6.6% 9.2% 8.2% 8.8% 10.7% 12.3% 12.0% 10.5% 5.8% 2.8% 0.7%
Elizabeth Harrington 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 2.9% 3.9% 5.6% 9.0% 16.1% 22.4% 31.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.