Race 4B

maisa-fall-women

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Emma AuBuchon 10.1% 11.2% 11.0% 12.2% 12.4% 9.8% 9.9% 10.3% 5.8% 4.2% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Lily Flack 4.0% 5.9% 7.0% 7.2% 7.9% 9.1% 10.1% 12.0% 12.3% 10.9% 8.6% 3.6% 1.3%
Camille McGriff 7.8% 7.8% 9.7% 8.3% 10.1% 12.4% 10.7% 11.6% 9.4% 7.4% 3.1% 1.6% 0.2%
Piper Holthus 23.6% 21.4% 16.2% 13.0% 9.2% 7.4% 4.3% 2.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Lilly Myers 12.8% 13.6% 13.8% 12.9% 12.0% 10.2% 9.3% 6.5% 4.8% 2.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%
Elizabeth Gildea 6.5% 6.9% 7.7% 8.6% 9.6% 10.1% 11.5% 11.3% 12.1% 8.5% 5.0% 1.8% 0.5%
Sofia Segalla 17.8% 15.8% 14.3% 13.7% 11.1% 9.7% 7.1% 5.3% 3.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Morgan Essex 1.8% 2.5% 2.4% 2.9% 3.8% 3.2% 5.4% 6.7% 8.6% 14.9% 16.2% 18.4% 13.2%
Elizabeth Cutler 7.7% 7.5% 8.7% 10.0% 10.1% 11.9% 10.7% 10.2% 9.0% 7.0% 5.5% 1.7% 0.1%
Elizabeth Harrington 0.9% 1.2% 1.3% 1.8% 1.8% 2.5% 3.4% 4.5% 6.2% 10.8% 14.8% 22.3% 28.5%
Laura Smith 0.9% 0.9% 1.8% 1.4% 1.8% 2.2% 3.5% 3.9% 6.3% 9.8% 15.6% 23.0% 28.9%
Jessica Schaefer 1.5% 1.5% 1.8% 2.0% 2.8% 3.3% 3.9% 4.5% 7.1% 10.8% 15.5% 20.5% 24.8%
Carlyn Blauvelt 4.7% 3.9% 4.5% 6.0% 7.5% 8.2% 10.1% 10.3% 13.7% 11.2% 11.8% 5.9% 2.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.