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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03+4.79vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.56+3.59vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.42+1.53vs Predicted
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4Salve Regina University0.18+8.43vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.29+1.65vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.08+1.59vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.13+0.27vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont1.31+1.58vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College0.65+1.77vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College1.48-1.16vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University1.25-2.31vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.18-2.93vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College1.94-6.22vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island0.71-3.29vs Predicted
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15Tufts University1.25-5.22vs Predicted
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16Boston University0.37-4.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.79U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.0310.6%1st Place
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5.59Boston College2.5612.7%1st Place
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4.53Yale University2.4216.4%1st Place
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12.43Salve Regina University0.181.5%1st Place
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6.65Brown University2.298.3%1st Place
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7.59Harvard University2.086.8%1st Place
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7.27Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.138.0%1st Place
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9.58University of Vermont1.314.0%1st Place
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10.77Connecticut College0.652.5%1st Place
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8.84Bowdoin College1.485.1%1st Place
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8.69Roger Williams University1.254.3%1st Place
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9.07Northeastern University1.184.2%1st Place
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6.78Dartmouth College1.948.6%1st Place
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10.71University of Rhode Island0.712.4%1st Place
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9.78Tufts University1.252.8%1st Place
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11.93Boston University0.372.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Bornarth | 10.6% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 12.7% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Carmen Cowles | 16.4% | 15.3% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Molly Hanrahan | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 16.0% | 27.8% |
| Olivia Belda | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Emma Kaneti | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Dana Haig | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Grace Gear | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 5.9% |
| Aili Moffet | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 12.7% | 13.3% |
| Ellie Maus | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 2.7% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 2.6% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.1% |
| Payton Thompson | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Megan Gimple | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 10.3% |
| Abbie Carlson | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 16.0% | 23.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.