Race 16A

2021-victorian-urn

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Claire Siegel-Wilson 5.3% 5.8% 5.0% 4.6% 6.3% 6.0% 6.1% 6.9% 8.3% 7.6% 8.0% 7.7% 7.4% 7.2% 5.2% 2.5%
Colleen O'Brien 12.4% 11.2% 10.9% 10.2% 9.1% 8.8% 7.2% 7.5% 6.2% 5.7% 4.3% 2.5% 1.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.4%
Dana Haig 6.9% 7.1% 7.8% 7.2% 7.9% 7.7% 8.8% 7.6% 7.8% 6.5% 6.5% 6.6% 4.8% 3.9% 2.3% 0.7%
Grace Gear 4.6% 3.4% 4.8% 4.8% 5.0% 5.1% 5.9% 5.9% 6.9% 7.0% 8.0% 7.2% 9.1% 8.3% 8.5% 5.7%
Emma Kaneti 7.0% 7.7% 6.8% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 6.9% 6.9% 8.0% 8.1% 6.6% 6.3% 5.0% 5.1% 2.7% 1.1%
Emily Bornarth 10.4% 11.8% 10.7% 9.0% 8.4% 9.7% 7.8% 7.6% 6.1% 6.6% 4.4% 3.0% 2.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2%
Olivia Belda 7.3% 9.2% 7.1% 9.8% 8.6% 8.1% 8.2% 9.0% 7.6% 6.5% 6.3% 4.5% 3.7% 2.2% 1.5% 0.3%
Carmen Cowles 16.0% 14.6% 14.0% 11.6% 10.5% 9.8% 7.8% 5.2% 4.5% 2.4% 1.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Ellie Maus 3.9% 4.5% 5.2% 6.1% 5.4% 6.1% 6.8% 6.3% 6.5% 7.9% 8.3% 9.0% 7.4% 7.3% 5.2% 3.9%
Abbie Carlson 3.6% 3.6% 4.4% 4.4% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 6.2% 5.0% 6.5% 8.2% 8.6% 9.0% 9.0% 9.8% 6.0%
Megan Gimple 3.1% 2.5% 3.0% 3.1% 4.5% 4.0% 4.2% 5.5% 5.3% 5.8% 6.7% 9.1% 8.7% 10.8% 11.5% 12.1%
Molly Hanrahan 1.8% 1.7% 1.1% 2.1% 2.7% 2.2% 2.6% 3.0% 3.2% 4.6% 5.4% 6.6% 7.4% 10.3% 16.3% 28.7%
Payton Thompson 8.2% 8.1% 9.4% 8.0% 7.3% 8.3% 8.6% 7.3% 7.6% 7.0% 6.7% 4.5% 4.2% 2.4% 1.5% 0.8%
Aili Moffet 2.9% 2.5% 3.1% 3.4% 4.2% 3.9% 4.2% 5.1% 4.9% 5.9% 5.9% 7.2% 10.0% 11.5% 12.7% 12.9%
Lucia Loosbrock 4.9% 4.5% 4.5% 5.4% 4.7% 5.1% 5.5% 6.4% 8.1% 7.8% 7.7% 9.2% 8.8% 7.8% 6.2% 3.4%
Lucy Paskoff 1.7% 1.7% 2.1% 2.9% 3.1% 2.4% 3.9% 3.5% 4.1% 4.3% 5.5% 6.6% 9.9% 11.6% 15.6% 21.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.