Race 1B

icebreaker

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Conor Lodge 19.7% 20.7% 13.9% 13.0% 10.4% 7.1% 5.8% 4.4% 2.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Timothy Harding 15.8% 14.5% 15.1% 11.8% 13.7% 11.1% 6.7% 4.9% 3.1% 1.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1%
Rebecca Quirke 7.1% 6.3% 8.6% 8.1% 7.8% 8.8% 10.2% 11.5% 10.1% 9.0% 7.4% 3.3% 1.3% 0.5%
Kate Levinson 10.0% 13.0% 13.3% 10.6% 11.6% 9.7% 11.6% 8.2% 5.5% 2.9% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Samuel Morley 1.7% 2.2% 2.3% 3.6% 3.2% 4.6% 6.2% 6.9% 8.2% 10.6% 13.5% 16.1% 14.2% 6.7%
Connor Bair-Cucchiaro 2.1% 2.6% 2.8% 4.1% 2.7% 4.6% 4.7% 8.4% 10.2% 11.7% 12.6% 14.1% 14.2% 5.2%
Peter Bailey 8.0% 8.5% 8.6% 8.3% 9.9% 11.1% 10.2% 9.2% 8.9% 7.8% 5.0% 2.9% 1.5% 0.1%
Alexander Giordano 16.0% 13.5% 14.9% 13.0% 11.4% 7.7% 8.7% 5.8% 3.9% 3.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Sam Gates 8.6% 8.7% 7.9% 11.4% 10.3% 11.5% 9.7% 11.2% 8.6% 6.6% 2.9% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1%
George Luber 3.5% 3.3% 3.7% 6.0% 5.7% 9.3% 8.9% 9.3% 9.7% 12.2% 13.0% 8.2% 5.6% 1.6%
Henry Lewis 2.2% 1.9% 2.4% 2.2% 3.5% 4.3% 5.9% 6.7% 8.6% 10.8% 13.5% 17.6% 13.6% 6.8%
Mark Sinks 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 1.3% 1.4% 1.1% 1.5% 2.0% 2.3% 3.5% 6.2% 8.9% 20.5% 50.2%
Shane Baker 1.4% 1.2% 0.9% 1.2% 2.3% 2.6% 2.0% 2.3% 5.4% 5.8% 9.5% 15.2% 22.9% 27.3%
Matthew Miranda 3.7% 3.2% 5.1% 5.4% 6.1% 6.5% 7.9% 9.2% 12.6% 12.4% 11.6% 9.8% 5.1% 1.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.