Race 4B

icebreaker

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Conor Lodge 20.5% 19.5% 15.7% 12.1% 9.4% 8.5% 5.3% 4.2% 2.1% 1.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Alexander Giordano 16.9% 16.1% 12.9% 11.8% 11.2% 11.5% 7.6% 5.9% 2.8% 1.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0%
Rebecca Quirke 7.0% 7.5% 6.9% 7.2% 8.3% 9.6% 10.7% 11.5% 10.0% 8.8% 6.5% 4.3% 1.5% 0.2%
Kate Levinson 10.5% 11.5% 12.5% 11.1% 12.8% 10.5% 9.6% 7.2% 6.8% 3.9% 2.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1%
Sam Gates 7.1% 8.4% 12.3% 10.6% 8.7% 12.5% 9.3% 9.8% 8.1% 7.0% 3.5% 1.9% 0.4% 0.4%
Timothy Harding 14.7% 12.9% 13.6% 13.5% 13.0% 8.4% 8.5% 7.0% 4.2% 3.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Samuel Morley 2.7% 2.0% 3.1% 4.5% 3.5% 4.4% 6.0% 8.2% 8.1% 11.4% 12.3% 15.6% 13.5% 4.7%
Henry Lewis 1.9% 2.7% 3.3% 3.6% 3.2% 5.2% 6.3% 5.4% 8.0% 9.2% 12.9% 16.7% 14.9% 6.7%
Connor Bair-Cucchiaro 3.0% 2.2% 2.4% 2.6% 4.2% 4.8% 5.2% 6.7% 11.1% 11.6% 13.9% 15.4% 11.8% 5.1%
Shane Baker 0.8% 1.6% 1.0% 1.3% 1.6% 1.3% 1.6% 2.1% 4.5% 7.5% 10.1% 14.1% 24.8% 27.7%
Peter Bailey 6.9% 6.5% 6.6% 9.8% 10.7% 9.1% 10.3% 10.2% 10.4% 7.6% 5.7% 4.6% 1.3% 0.3%
Mark Sinks 0.4% 0.2% 0.9% 0.7% 1.4% 0.8% 1.7% 1.9% 2.5% 3.0% 6.2% 10.1% 19.3% 50.9%
George Luber 4.4% 4.5% 4.9% 4.8% 5.7% 6.1% 9.8% 10.9% 11.0% 11.2% 11.2% 8.1% 5.7% 1.7%
Matthew Miranda 3.2% 4.4% 3.9% 6.4% 6.3% 7.3% 8.1% 9.0% 10.4% 12.4% 13.0% 7.6% 5.8% 2.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.