Race 5B

icebreaker

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Peter Bailey 6.9% 7.6% 8.3% 10.4% 9.2% 10.2% 9.5% 10.0% 8.9% 7.9% 5.5% 3.8% 1.5% 0.3%
Conor Lodge 20.8% 18.2% 15.7% 12.4% 11.3% 9.2% 5.5% 3.3% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Timothy Harding 16.0% 15.4% 12.6% 12.4% 12.0% 9.9% 8.0% 5.7% 4.6% 1.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Kate Levinson 11.3% 11.6% 11.5% 11.9% 10.8% 9.7% 10.6% 7.8% 6.4% 4.8% 2.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Connor Bair-Cucchiaro 1.9% 2.5% 3.4% 3.8% 2.7% 5.5% 6.1% 6.4% 8.8% 11.0% 13.6% 14.8% 13.4% 6.1%
Rebecca Quirke 6.6% 6.3% 6.8% 7.2% 10.5% 10.2% 9.0% 11.8% 10.0% 7.8% 7.4% 4.0% 2.1% 0.3%
Samuel Morley 2.3% 2.8% 3.0% 4.1% 4.4% 4.2% 5.6% 7.3% 8.8% 11.0% 13.9% 14.0% 13.3% 5.3%
Henry Lewis 2.2% 2.2% 4.2% 2.9% 3.4% 4.8% 6.0% 5.6% 7.6% 11.2% 12.6% 15.6% 13.6% 8.1%
Alexander Giordano 14.1% 15.1% 13.9% 12.5% 12.0% 9.5% 7.8% 7.1% 3.9% 2.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
George Luber 3.7% 3.9% 4.0% 5.2% 5.8% 7.1% 7.5% 11.4% 11.4% 11.4% 12.0% 9.2% 5.3% 2.1%
Sam Gates 9.0% 9.0% 9.7% 10.2% 10.1% 9.9% 10.9% 10.0% 8.4% 5.8% 4.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.0%
Shane Baker 0.7% 0.8% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 2.3% 2.5% 2.3% 4.3% 7.0% 9.2% 16.4% 25.0% 25.3%
Matthew Miranda 4.1% 3.9% 4.7% 4.9% 5.4% 6.2% 9.5% 9.1% 12.3% 12.6% 10.0% 9.3% 6.2% 1.8%
Mark Sinks 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 1.1% 1.3% 1.5% 2.2% 2.5% 4.7% 6.3% 9.0% 18.3% 50.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.