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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University0.80+5.71vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College1.18+3.19vs Predicted
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3Fairfield University0.42+4.40vs Predicted
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41.06+1.73vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.22+0.56vs Predicted
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6Brown University1.01+0.20vs Predicted
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7University of New Hampshire-0.38+3.41vs Predicted
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8Bates College0.72-0.96vs Predicted
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9University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.02+0.02vs Predicted
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10Tufts University0.80-3.05vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.51-0.41vs Predicted
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12Harvard University0.45-4.46vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.87-7.54vs Predicted
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14Salve Regina University-0.79-2.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.71Tufts University0.807.7%1st Place
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5.19Bowdoin College1.1813.5%1st Place
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7.4Fairfield University0.426.2%1st Place
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5.731.0611.7%1st Place
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5.56Northeastern University1.2210.3%1st Place
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6.2Brown University1.018.5%1st Place
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10.41University of New Hampshire-0.382.2%1st Place
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7.04Bates College0.727.4%1st Place
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9.02University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.023.8%1st Place
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6.95Tufts University0.807.2%1st Place
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10.59Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.511.8%1st Place
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7.54Harvard University0.455.5%1st Place
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5.46University of Vermont0.8712.4%1st Place
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11.2Salve Regina University-0.791.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Schmidt | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Ethan Danielson | 13.5% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Nolan Cooper | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 2.2% |
| Max Teo | 11.7% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Eva Ermlich | 10.3% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Sidney Moyer | 8.5% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Sean Lund | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 11.9% | 17.6% | 23.7% |
| Jett Lindelof | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 1.8% |
| William Delong | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 13.0% | 7.8% |
| Blake Vogel | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 1.7% |
| Evan Tofolo | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 13.8% | 16.4% | 22.7% |
| Theresa Straw | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 3.6% |
| Christian Cushman | 12.4% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Sean Morrison | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 11.8% | 18.6% | 32.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.