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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University1.81+6.53vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.56+6.20vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College1.48+5.42vs Predicted
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4Harvard University1.90+1.83vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.55-0.76vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.13+0.77vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.32+0.82vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.30+0.62vs Predicted
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9Brown University1.80-0.86vs Predicted
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10Northwestern University0.55+0.89vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College1.94-4.65vs Predicted
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12College of Charleston1.45-4.47vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island0.71-2.89vs Predicted
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14Boston University0.37-2.58vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University1.37-6.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.53Tufts University1.816.5%1st Place
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8.2University of Pennsylvania1.565.1%1st Place
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8.42Bowdoin College1.485.0%1st Place
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5.83Harvard University1.9010.6%1st Place
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4.24Yale University2.5519.0%1st Place
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6.77Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.137.8%1st Place
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7.82George Washington University1.326.3%1st Place
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8.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.304.8%1st Place
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8.14Brown University1.805.0%1st Place
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10.89Northwestern University0.552.1%1st Place
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6.35Dartmouth College1.949.4%1st Place
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7.53College of Charleston1.457.2%1st Place
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10.11University of Rhode Island0.713.8%1st Place
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11.42Boston University0.372.0%1st Place
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8.13Georgetown University1.375.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talia Toland | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 2.5% |
| Amanda Majernik | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% |
| Ellie Maus | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 4.9% |
| Sarah Burn | 10.6% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Emma Cowles | 19.0% | 15.1% | 14.4% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Dana Haig | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 2.3% |
| Ella Withington | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.0% |
| Blaire McCarthy | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 3.4% |
| Marina Hutzler | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 15.6% | 22.6% |
| Payton Thompson | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Grace Squires | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Megan Gimple | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 13.8% | 15.5% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 14.5% | 30.3% |
| Riley Kloc | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 3.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.