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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.55+3.13vs Predicted
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2Harvard University1.90+3.78vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.13+3.60vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.81+3.55vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.56+3.10vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston1.45+1.70vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.32+0.95vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University0.55+2.78vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College1.94-2.76vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College1.48-1.50vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University1.37-2.96vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island0.71-1.78vs Predicted
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13Boston University0.37-1.57vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.30-5.22vs Predicted
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15Brown University1.80-6.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.13Yale University2.5519.4%1st Place
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5.78Harvard University1.9010.7%1st Place
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6.6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.138.8%1st Place
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7.55Tufts University1.817.1%1st Place
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8.1University of Pennsylvania1.565.2%1st Place
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7.7College of Charleston1.456.3%1st Place
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7.95George Washington University1.326.4%1st Place
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10.78Northwestern University0.552.6%1st Place
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6.24Dartmouth College1.9410.6%1st Place
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8.5Bowdoin College1.484.8%1st Place
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8.04Georgetown University1.375.3%1st Place
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10.22University of Rhode Island0.712.7%1st Place
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11.43Boston University0.371.2%1st Place
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8.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.304.3%1st Place
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8.2Brown University1.804.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Cowles | 19.4% | 16.4% | 15.2% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Sarah Burn | 10.7% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Dana Haig | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Talia Toland | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| Amanda Majernik | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.3% |
| Grace Squires | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 2.9% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.6% |
| Marina Hutzler | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 15.2% | 20.7% |
| Payton Thompson | 10.6% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Ellie Maus | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 5.0% |
| Riley Kloc | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.0% |
| Megan Gimple | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 14.5% | 14.5% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 14.4% | 29.4% |
| Ella Withington | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% |
| Blaire McCarthy | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 3.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.